***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.12.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.01.2017.-08.01.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 4.6 4.9 3.7 0.9 58.8 58.7 1.5 3.7 5.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 4.1 4.2 3.4 0.7 56.9 57.2 1.3 3.4 5.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 5.7 5.7 3.9 0.7 56.7 56.8 2.4 4.8 7.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 1.5 1.7 1.3 0.8 58.0 57.0 -1.8 0.6 2.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 5.3 5.4 2.3 0.8 57.9 56.9 2.1 4.4 6.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 34 66 100 6.4 5.2 2.5 1.0 60.2 59.3 1.8 3.9 5.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 3.7 3.9 3.5 0.8 57.7 58.0 1.0 3.0 5.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 35 65 100 0.7 -0.3 2.6 0.9 59.8 58.9 -2.8 -1.2 0.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 6.2 6.3 3.2 0.7 57.2 56.5 2.9 5.3 7.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 5.2 5.3 3.0 0.9 58.5 57.6 2.3 4.3 6.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 35 65 100 7.1 5.8 2.4 0.9 59.2 58.2 2.3 4.5 6.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 33 67 100 7.8 6.4 2.6 1.0 60.5 59.6 2.6 4.9 7.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 27 73 100 7.2 5.9 2.4 1.2 62.2 61.0 2.1 4.3 6.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 6.4 6.2 3.8 0.6 55.6 55.4 2.9 5.4 7.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 4.7 4.7 2.0 0.6 56.5 56.3 1.6 3.9 6.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 31 69 100 7.8 6.4 2.3 1.0 60.7 59.5 2.5 4.9 7.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 3.7 3.5 3.5 0.6 55.4 55.9 1.0 2.9 4.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 34 66 100 4.6 3.6 3.4 1.0 59.8 58.7 1.0 2.7 4.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 4.8 4.7 3.6 0.7 56.3 56.6 1.6 3.9 6.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 35 65 100 3.9 3.0 2.2 1.2 61.7 60.6 -0.6 1.5 3.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 5.8 5.8 3.5 0.7 56.9 56.5 2.6 4.9 7.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 4.7 4.4 3.5 0.5 54.7 55.2 1.6 3.8 5.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 4.5 4.4 3.9 0.6 55.5 55.7 1.5 3.7 5.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 6.8 6.9 3.7 0.8 57.3 56.8 3.5 5.9 8.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 4.2 4.4 2.4 0.8 58.3 57.7 1.4 3.4 5.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 29 71 100 5.9 5.2 2.6 1.3 64.2 63.0 2.1 3.8 5.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 39 61 100 7.0 5.8 3.3 0.9 59.0 58.9 2.2 4.5 6.7 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 5.6 5.8 1.7 0.8 57.7 56.8 2.3 4.7 7.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 32 68 100 4.8 3.6 3.0 1.1 61.0 59.8 0.0 2.2 4.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 4.0 4.2 3.4 0.8 57.6 57.9 1.1 3.3 5.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------