***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.12.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.12.2016.-08.01.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 4.4 4.7 3.9 0.7 59.5 58.1 2.8 4.0 5.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 4.0 4.2 3.8 0.6 57.5 56.6 2.6 3.7 4.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 5.6 5.8 4.3 0.6 58.5 57.0 4.0 5.2 6.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 42 58 100 1.7 1.4 1.8 1.0 63.2 61.1 -0.6 0.5 1.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 5.2 5.7 2.9 0.9 62.5 60.1 3.6 4.8 5.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 39 61 100 5.6 5.4 2.6 1.1 65.8 62.7 3.2 4.4 5.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 3.7 3.9 3.7 0.6 57.6 56.7 2.2 3.4 4.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 -0.6 0.0 3.0 1.2 67.3 63.9 -1.7 -0.9 -0.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 6.0 6.5 3.8 0.9 63.0 60.3 4.2 5.5 6.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 5.1 5.8 3.5 1.1 65.5 62.3 3.6 4.7 5.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 5.5 6.1 3.2 1.0 64.0 61.3 3.7 5.0 6.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 42 58 100 6.5 6.4 3.1 1.1 66.3 63.3 4.0 5.2 6.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 40 60 100 6.2 6.0 3.1 1.1 65.8 62.7 3.6 4.9 6.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 6.1 6.5 4.4 0.9 61.7 59.0 4.4 5.6 6.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 4.2 4.5 2.9 0.8 61.7 60.4 2.7 3.8 4.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 5.9 6.6 2.8 1.1 64.7 61.8 4.2 5.5 6.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 3.6 3.6 3.7 0.5 56.4 55.7 2.1 3.2 4.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 3.2 3.9 3.6 1.3 67.5 63.9 1.9 2.9 3.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 4.7 4.8 4.0 0.6 57.8 56.7 3.0 4.2 5.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 35 65 100 3.2 3.3 2.6 1.4 70.4 66.4 0.6 1.8 3.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 5.6 5.9 4.1 0.7 60.3 58.3 4.0 5.2 6.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 4.3 4.3 3.9 0.5 56.3 55.4 2.8 3.9 5.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 4.5 4.7 4.3 0.6 58.5 56.9 2.9 4.1 5.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 6.2 6.7 4.3 1.0 62.9 60.1 4.3 5.7 7.0 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 4.3 4.6 3.0 0.8 60.3 58.7 2.8 3.9 4.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 37 63 100 5.5 5.5 2.7 1.2 67.6 64.4 3.2 4.3 5.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 5.5 5.7 3.6 0.7 59.7 58.1 3.7 5.0 6.2 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 5.3 5.7 2.4 1.0 62.7 60.8 3.8 4.9 5.9 28 Zajecar 36700G16 0 38 62 100 3.2 3.3 3.3 1.4 69.6 65.7 0.9 2.0 3.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 4.1 4.2 3.8 0.6 58.1 57.1 2.6 3.7 4.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------