***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.12.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.12.2016.-18.12.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 81 19 0 100 2.8 3.8 4.0 36.0 31.5 24.8 4.1 7.8 12.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 83 17 0 100 2.8 3.8 3.5 35.7 30.3 21.3 4.3 7.1 10.9 30 Becej 27400G00 81 19 0 100 3.0 3.8 3.9 33.6 28.8 22.5 4.5 8.8 14.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 70 30 0 100 5.2 6.2 5.2 37.7 32.1 26.3 6.4 10.1 15.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 71 29 0 100 5.2 6.0 6.0 41.2 32.2 27.6 6.2 9.1 12.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 80 20 0 100 2.5 2.5 4.5 32.8 25.0 23.0 3.6 6.5 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 79 21 0 100 3.4 4.2 3.4 34.8 29.7 21.9 4.7 7.9 12.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 77 23 0 100 10.2 10.5 5.4 33.9 24.7 22.5 12.4 16.2 20.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 77 23 0 100 2.9 3.5 4.9 36.4 29.1 24.3 4.0 7.2 11.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 73 27 0 100 5.3 5.7 6.0 37.3 27.7 24.8 6.7 10.5 15.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 73 27 0 100 3.9 4.0 5.4 35.8 27.3 24.2 4.9 8.1 12.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 80 20 0 100 4.5 4.4 4.2 29.8 22.7 20.5 6.1 9.2 13.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 76 24 0 100 5.0 5.1 5.8 34.4 25.3 23.7 6.5 9.8 13.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 81 19 0 100 5.5 6.1 5.0 32.3 26.2 21.9 7.9 13.3 20.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 76 24 0 100 2.6 2.8 3.3 27.1 28.9 19.4 3.4 7.6 14.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 76 24 0 100 4.4 4.8 5.3 35.3 27.5 23.9 5.7 9.1 13.3 30 Nis 06700G01 84 16 0 100 2.8 3.8 3.3 34.7 29.7 21.1 4.2 7.0 10.6 30 Palic 37000G16 71 29 0 100 5.7 5.5 5.7 34.8 25.7 23.3 6.9 10.9 15.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 87 13 0 100 2.6 4.0 3.6 35.2 29.7 21.0 4.6 8.1 13.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 74 26 0 100 6.2 6.4 6.6 36.1 26.8 23.8 7.9 12.6 18.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 76 24 0 100 3.3 3.8 4.6 35.6 29.2 23.5 4.5 8.2 13.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 83 17 0 100 3.7 4.8 3.5 34.7 30.1 21.1 5.2 7.8 10.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 87 13 0 100 2.5 3.6 3.9 35.1 29.4 21.3 4.3 7.7 12.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 75 25 0 100 5.6 5.6 4.8 32.7 25.7 22.4 7.4 12.1 18.2 28 Valjevo 28500G11 68 32 0 100 3.2 4.1 5.7 43.4 35.5 30.4 3.7 6.8 10.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 83 17 0 100 3.3 3.4 4.0 29.3 23.0 21.0 5.0 8.4 12.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 74 26 0 100 2.7 3.7 4.6 40.8 34.6 28.5 3.5 6.9 12.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 74 26 0 100 3.1 3.5 4.3 32.9 29.7 22.7 4.0 7.3 11.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 72 28 0 100 9.3 9.0 5.8 34.0 25.3 23.3 11.6 18.0 26.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 83 17 0 100 2.3 3.3 3.6 35.1 30.1 21.8 3.8 7.2 12.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------