***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.12.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.12.2016.-25.12.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 3.5 5.6 7.9 65.7 48.6 39.8 3.5 5.9 8.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 4.2 7.2 7.3 70.7 52.4 42.7 4.3 6.8 9.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 11.1 8.7 8.0 67.2 50.0 42.0 5.1 8.7 13.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 6.0 10.3 9.5 73.0 51.5 41.2 6.1 9.9 14.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 7.1 11.5 9.3 69.7 51.2 41.3 7.0 11.2 16.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 6.0 9.3 8.9 69.1 48.9 40.3 6.0 9.6 14.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 4.1 7.9 7.4 72.6 53.6 43.2 4.1 7.1 11.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 16.3 14.2 10.3 72.5 51.9 43.1 9.0 13.6 19.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 4.1 6.8 9.5 70.1 50.0 41.2 3.8 6.8 10.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 11.0 9.4 10.0 72.9 52.2 43.6 5.5 8.9 13.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 11.9 9.7 9.3 69.6 50.5 41.5 5.7 9.5 14.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 11.0 9.0 9.3 69.1 49.8 40.9 5.8 9.1 13.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 12.5 10.5 9.6 69.6 50.7 41.6 6.5 10.3 15.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 13.5 11.6 10.5 71.9 50.3 44.2 7.9 11.5 15.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 3.9 9.5 9.2 78.8 55.9 43.2 3.7 7.7 13.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 5.8 8.8 9.2 68.6 49.5 40.7 5.6 8.8 12.9 30 Nis 06700G01 63 37 0 100 3.4 7.7 7.8 76.9 54.5 42.5 3.7 6.7 10.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 8.6 7.1 10.6 72.1 50.9 43.3 4.2 7.0 10.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 4.1 7.1 7.4 69.4 51.3 42.7 3.9 6.8 10.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 10.9 10.3 13.8 76.7 54.3 45.6 6.4 9.4 12.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 4.9 7.7 8.9 67.5 48.4 40.0 4.8 8.0 12.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 3.8 7.8 8.2 78.5 55.3 44.0 4.0 6.7 10.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 7.9 6.4 8.1 68.1 49.5 42.1 4.0 6.4 9.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 10.6 8.5 9.7 70.0 50.1 43.0 5.1 8.5 12.9 28 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 4.8 9.0 9.5 69.0 50.7 40.7 4.7 8.9 14.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 5.6 8.9 9.9 72.7 51.2 40.9 5.7 8.7 12.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 4.4 8.0 8.6 67.6 49.7 40.2 4.3 8.0 13.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 4.6 8.7 8.9 73.9 52.9 42.0 4.4 8.0 13.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 15.4 13.3 11.8 73.5 51.2 43.8 8.5 12.9 18.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 4.1 7.3 7.4 70.0 52.2 43.1 4.1 6.9 10.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------