***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.12.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.12.2016.-01.01.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 5.3 13.5 9.8 92.6 60.0 44.3 5.6 10.0 16.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 65 35 0 100 5.0 14.7 9.2 104.8 65.2 44.7 5.6 9.7 15.1 30 Becej 27400G00 63 37 0 100 6.1 14.4 9.6 91.9 59.4 43.2 6.8 11.3 17.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 62 38 0 100 4.8 11.1 9.6 83.6 55.9 41.1 5.1 9.2 14.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 5.0 10.3 9.9 80.7 53.9 40.8 5.2 9.2 14.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 66 34 0 100 3.7 8.6 9.3 81.4 54.1 40.8 4.2 7.6 12.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 65 35 0 100 3.9 13.9 8.9 102.5 64.3 43.9 4.3 8.5 14.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 6.3 12.3 10.3 80.6 53.6 40.2 6.6 11.2 17.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 4.1 7.8 10.5 81.2 53.6 41.2 4.1 7.0 10.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 4.2 8.4 10.8 81.5 53.7 41.1 4.0 7.4 12.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 4.9 9.9 9.6 80.3 53.8 40.4 5.0 8.9 13.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 4.6 8.8 9.2 78.4 52.7 39.4 4.8 8.2 12.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 63 37 0 100 3.6 8.2 9.6 79.0 52.3 39.7 3.8 7.5 12.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 7.9 17.1 11.4 89.7 58.3 44.5 8.1 13.7 20.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 63 37 0 100 3.5 11.2 9.8 90.1 60.7 42.2 3.6 7.5 13.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 3.6 7.9 9.4 79.8 53.4 40.2 3.8 7.0 11.5 30 Nis 06700G01 67 33 0 100 3.8 13.2 8.7 103.6 64.8 44.1 4.4 8.3 13.7 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 4.4 8.3 11.2 83.0 54.0 41.7 4.0 7.3 12.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 65 35 0 100 5.3 15.3 9.4 103.6 64.6 44.9 6.0 10.3 15.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 4.8 10.7 13.5 84.8 55.7 42.3 4.7 8.9 14.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 4.6 10.3 10.3 87.0 56.5 42.5 4.8 8.5 13.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 65 35 0 100 4.7 14.2 9.2 106.0 65.6 45.6 5.3 9.2 14.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 5.3 12.5 9.6 96.4 61.5 44.3 5.7 9.3 13.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 6.5 12.6 10.4 85.1 55.7 42.6 6.7 10.9 16.3 28 Valjevo 28500G11 62 38 0 100 4.7 11.7 10.3 86.8 57.1 43.8 5.0 9.4 15.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 63 37 0 100 3.6 8.0 8.9 79.7 53.9 39.9 4.0 7.1 11.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 4.8 12.4 10.1 90.9 59.1 44.5 5.0 9.3 15.2 29 Vrsac 39200G15 64 36 0 100 3.5 9.9 9.5 86.1 57.6 40.9 3.7 7.5 13.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 7.2 13.9 12.0 83.5 54.2 41.9 7.1 12.3 19.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 62 38 0 100 4.7 13.6 9.3 100.5 63.6 44.4 5.0 9.1 14.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------