***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.12.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.01.2017.-08.01.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 2.2 5.5 9.1 89.1 59.1 43.7 2.1 4.1 6.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 2.4 5.9 8.2 93.7 61.0 46.0 2.4 4.3 6.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 9.0 9.4 9.4 93.2 60.9 46.9 3.7 6.8 11.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 4.2 11.0 10.7 101.7 64.2 49.7 4.2 7.4 11.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 4.7 10.9 11.1 99.1 62.7 48.0 4.7 7.9 11.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 3.5 8.6 9.7 90.4 59.7 47.5 3.3 6.2 10.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 2.4 5.9 7.4 85.8 57.9 42.8 2.5 4.6 7.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 6.3 14.3 11.4 96.9 62.0 48.4 6.3 10.5 15.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 3.8 9.0 11.7 98.1 62.1 47.9 3.7 6.4 10.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 3.9 10.1 12.1 97.3 61.8 48.2 3.7 7.0 11.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 3.5 9.3 10.7 98.4 62.4 48.4 3.4 6.3 10.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 3.3 10.3 10.1 96.0 61.8 48.3 3.1 6.7 11.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 3.8 10.3 10.6 93.6 60.6 47.7 3.9 7.4 12.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 6.3 12.4 12.0 94.7 61.4 48.2 6.3 9.6 13.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 2.7 9.7 10.7 107.2 67.1 51.2 2.4 5.2 9.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 3.2 9.3 10.3 95.9 61.7 48.3 3.2 6.3 10.7 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 2.3 6.1 7.6 90.3 59.7 43.8 2.4 4.5 7.4 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 3.6 8.3 12.5 94.3 60.5 47.4 3.3 6.0 9.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 2.8 6.7 8.7 95.6 61.8 47.3 2.7 4.7 7.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 4.4 11.0 14.7 95.1 61.4 47.3 4.0 7.5 12.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 4.2 9.2 10.7 95.6 61.4 47.7 3.9 6.7 10.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 2.5 6.5 8.2 92.0 60.6 44.8 2.5 4.7 7.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 7.0 7.6 9.5 95.6 62.0 48.2 3.3 5.6 8.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 9.8 10.2 11.3 94.0 60.9 47.9 4.6 7.8 11.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 4.0 9.2 10.5 92.1 60.3 45.6 3.8 6.8 10.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 3.1 9.0 9.7 93.0 61.3 47.5 3.0 6.1 10.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 3.0 6.8 9.5 87.8 58.5 43.1 3.1 5.3 8.3 29 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 2.9 9.0 10.5 104.8 65.5 50.7 2.7 5.4 9.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 14.1 14.5 13.2 93.9 60.5 47.3 6.7 11.1 16.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 2.4 6.0 8.4 91.8 60.4 45.6 2.4 4.4 7.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------