***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.12.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.12.2016.-08.01.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 24.0 27.1 30.8 70.2 36.9 35.8 25.0 35.3 47.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 39.3 29.4 28.1 74.8 41.3 39.0 25.0 34.2 44.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 52.9 38.1 30.8 70.2 36.3 35.6 36.3 47.2 59.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 35.4 39.6 35.0 71.7 37.6 36.4 37.0 47.3 58.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 37.4 40.1 36.3 70.7 35.1 35.0 39.0 47.6 56.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 28.9 29.0 32.4 66.8 29.9 30.8 30.7 39.7 49.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 26.4 30.6 27.1 72.6 40.1 38.0 26.5 36.7 48.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 51.8 53.2 37.4 68.7 32.1 32.8 53.9 63.1 72.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 27.1 29.3 36.7 70.5 34.5 34.7 28.6 36.5 45.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 36.6 38.2 38.8 70.2 32.7 33.4 38.2 45.9 54.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 36.0 37.4 35.0 68.2 32.3 32.9 37.6 44.9 52.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 33.4 33.4 32.9 65.9 30.0 31.1 34.8 43.8 53.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 34.6 33.8 35.6 65.8 27.7 29.6 36.7 46.3 56.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 65.2 47.2 38.9 70.1 32.7 34.1 47.5 59.4 72.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 28.6 37.3 33.0 73.9 42.9 39.5 30.0 42.9 57.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 31.0 31.5 34.1 67.2 30.7 31.6 32.6 41.3 50.7 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 25.4 29.9 27.4 75.1 41.5 38.5 25.6 34.8 45.3 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 33.8 34.0 40.0 69.2 30.5 32.0 35.1 42.1 49.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 43.8 32.3 29.1 74.4 40.5 38.6 27.7 38.1 49.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 39.6 41.6 48.6 71.8 34.3 34.4 40.7 50.9 61.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 31.7 33.5 34.5 70.2 35.0 35.1 32.3 41.7 52.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 26.0 30.9 29.1 76.3 41.8 38.9 26.4 35.3 45.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 40.9 30.0 31.1 72.4 37.5 36.8 27.9 36.4 45.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 55.7 41.0 36.3 68.5 31.5 32.8 41.7 50.9 60.6 28 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 31.2 34.9 36.0 71.8 37.2 36.5 32.1 43.2 55.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 28.2 28.2 32.4 66.6 30.0 31.2 29.8 39.4 50.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 27.2 31.1 32.9 71.4 37.4 36.4 28.2 39.8 53.5 29 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 29.4 34.5 33.2 72.1 38.8 36.7 31.3 40.8 51.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 58.9 59.3 42.8 69.6 30.9 32.3 60.7 70.7 81.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 41.5 29.7 28.6 73.2 40.1 38.2 25.6 35.8 47.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------