***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.12.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.12.2015.-27.12.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 19 81 100 6.5 8.4 6.1 3.2 85.9 79.8 2.2 4.0 5.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 16 84 100 6.4 8.5 6.1 3.5 87.8 81.6 2.0 3.8 5.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 14 86 100 8.4 10.3 6.3 3.3 86.4 80.6 3.5 5.4 7.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 10 90 100 3.0 4.7 4.4 3.6 87.9 83.3 -1.2 0.4 1.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 12 88 100 7.6 9.4 5.0 3.4 86.7 82.1 3.0 4.8 6.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 17 83 100 6.6 8.0 4.5 3.1 84.1 79.8 2.5 4.2 5.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 17 83 100 6.0 8.1 6.0 3.5 87.5 81.3 1.7 3.4 5.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 11 89 100 1.0 2.1 4.8 3.2 85.6 81.7 -2.5 -1.2 0.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 13 87 100 8.5 10.5 5.9 3.3 86.4 81.3 3.5 5.5 7.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 12 88 100 7.7 9.4 5.4 3.3 85.9 81.4 2.9 4.8 6.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 14 86 100 8.1 9.8 4.8 3.1 85.4 81.5 3.2 5.2 7.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 13 87 100 7.8 9.1 4.6 2.9 84.1 80.6 3.2 5.0 6.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 14 86 100 7.7 9.0 4.3 2.8 83.0 79.5 3.0 4.9 6.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 11 89 100 9.0 10.8 6.3 3.4 85.8 80.8 3.6 5.7 7.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 14 86 100 5.3 6.8 4.8 3.7 88.1 83.4 2.1 3.4 4.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 13 87 100 8.2 9.7 4.4 3.0 84.5 80.8 3.5 5.4 7.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 15 85 100 5.7 7.8 6.0 3.6 88.2 81.7 1.6 3.2 4.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 14 86 100 5.4 6.7 5.5 3.3 84.9 80.7 1.5 3.0 4.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 14 86 100 7.3 9.4 6.3 3.5 87.6 81.5 2.5 4.4 6.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 12 88 100 4.5 6.1 4.2 3.3 85.5 81.7 -0.2 1.7 3.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 13 87 100 8.1 9.9 6.1 3.3 86.6 81.0 3.2 5.2 6.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 14 86 100 6.5 8.5 6.2 3.6 88.3 81.7 2.2 3.9 5.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 10 90 100 7.0 8.8 6.6 3.5 87.1 81.2 2.4 4.2 5.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 11 89 100 8.9 10.8 6.2 3.3 85.5 80.6 3.4 5.6 7.6 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 16 84 100 6.2 7.9 5.0 3.4 87.6 82.0 2.4 4.0 5.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 11 89 100 6.5 7.4 4.0 2.7 82.4 79.3 2.4 4.0 5.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 21 79 100 7.7 9.8 5.6 3.2 86.3 80.2 3.1 5.1 6.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 11 89 100 6.5 8.0 4.7 3.6 87.5 83.0 2.9 4.3 5.6 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 11 89 100 4.5 5.8 4.9 3.2 84.5 80.7 0.1 1.8 3.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 15 85 100 6.5 8.4 6.1 3.4 87.1 81.0 2.0 3.8 5.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------