***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.12.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.12.2015.-03.01.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 39 61 100 6.2 6.1 4.5 2.0 68.1 65.9 1.7 3.8 5.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 38 62 100 5.6 5.7 4.4 2.2 69.0 67.0 1.5 3.4 5.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 36 64 100 7.6 7.5 4.6 2.0 68.1 66.1 2.8 5.1 7.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 31 69 100 3.1 3.2 2.5 2.2 70.7 67.8 -1.2 0.7 2.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 40 60 100 7.0 7.1 3.0 1.9 68.6 66.1 2.6 4.8 6.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 37 63 100 6.4 6.1 2.5 1.6 66.1 63.3 2.5 4.3 6.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 38 62 100 5.4 5.4 4.2 2.1 68.5 66.4 1.2 3.2 5.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 -0.5 0.5 2.9 1.7 67.2 64.5 -2.5 -1.0 0.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 6.2 7.8 3.9 1.8 67.3 65.0 3.3 5.5 7.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 5.4 6.7 3.4 1.7 66.5 64.1 2.7 4.7 6.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 42 58 100 7.0 7.1 3.0 1.8 67.9 65.4 2.7 4.8 6.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 42 58 100 7.5 7.5 3.0 1.7 67.4 64.8 3.2 5.3 7.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 41 59 100 6.9 6.8 2.6 1.6 66.2 63.9 2.8 4.8 6.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 43 57 100 8.1 8.1 4.3 1.8 66.5 64.7 3.2 5.7 8.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 30 70 100 6.3 6.5 2.8 2.2 72.0 68.5 1.8 3.8 5.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 38 62 100 7.9 7.8 2.7 1.8 68.0 65.3 3.4 5.6 7.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 35 65 100 5.3 5.2 4.2 2.1 68.3 66.3 1.1 3.0 4.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 3.5 4.5 3.5 1.6 65.4 63.3 1.2 2.9 4.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 37 63 100 6.5 6.5 4.6 2.2 69.1 67.0 1.8 4.0 6.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 38 62 100 3.6 3.4 2.3 1.7 66.7 63.8 -0.6 1.4 3.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 39 61 100 7.4 7.4 4.2 1.9 68.0 65.8 2.8 5.0 7.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 38 62 100 5.9 5.9 4.3 2.1 68.3 66.2 1.7 3.7 5.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 37 63 100 6.2 6.2 4.7 2.1 68.6 66.6 1.8 3.9 5.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 43 57 100 8.3 8.2 4.2 1.7 66.1 64.3 3.4 5.9 8.2 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 33 67 100 5.8 5.8 3.2 2.0 69.6 67.1 1.8 3.7 5.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 36 64 100 6.3 6.1 2.5 1.6 67.0 64.6 2.5 4.3 6.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 37 63 100 7.5 7.4 3.9 1.9 68.3 66.1 2.8 5.0 7.1 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 30 70 100 7.7 7.7 2.7 2.2 70.9 67.7 2.8 5.0 7.0 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 39 61 100 4.0 3.7 3.0 1.6 65.4 63.3 -0.1 1.9 3.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 37 63 100 5.7 5.8 4.5 2.1 68.8 66.7 1.4 3.5 5.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------