***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.12.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.01.2016.-10.01.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 4.8 6.1 4.5 1.5 64.6 62.5 1.6 4.0 6.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 40 60 100 5.9 5.9 4.5 2.0 67.9 65.3 1.2 3.4 5.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 40 60 100 7.5 7.2 4.6 1.7 65.8 63.4 2.3 4.8 7.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 38 62 100 3.0 2.9 2.5 1.7 67.8 64.4 -1.6 0.6 2.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 40 60 100 6.8 6.5 3.0 1.5 65.2 62.6 2.0 4.3 6.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 4.8 5.2 2.2 0.9 60.1 58.7 1.8 3.9 6.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 42 58 100 5.3 5.3 4.3 1.9 67.1 64.7 0.8 3.0 5.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 41 59 100 0.9 0.4 2.7 1.1 62.7 60.8 -2.1 -0.6 0.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 6.2 7.4 3.9 1.4 64.0 61.6 2.8 5.3 7.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 5.0 5.8 3.4 1.2 62.6 60.6 2.0 4.2 6.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 41 59 100 7.1 6.5 2.9 1.3 64.0 61.8 2.1 4.5 6.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 41 59 100 7.5 6.8 2.8 1.1 62.7 61.0 2.5 4.9 7.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 41 59 100 6.8 5.7 2.3 0.9 60.0 59.0 2.0 4.3 6.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 41 59 100 8.1 7.4 4.3 1.4 63.4 61.3 2.7 5.4 7.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 37 63 100 6.6 6.8 2.8 1.9 70.2 65.9 1.6 3.9 6.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 5.8 6.7 2.5 1.2 62.7 60.8 2.4 4.9 7.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 41 59 100 5.2 5.3 4.3 2.0 67.9 65.3 0.8 3.0 5.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 3.2 3.7 3.3 1.0 60.3 59.0 0.7 2.6 4.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 39 61 100 6.6 6.6 4.7 2.0 67.9 65.2 1.4 3.9 6.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 2.3 2.6 1.8 0.8 58.8 58.1 -0.6 1.5 3.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 41 59 100 7.4 7.0 4.3 1.5 64.8 62.4 2.4 4.9 7.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 39 61 100 6.4 6.4 4.6 2.1 68.2 65.3 1.4 3.8 6.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 36 64 100 6.2 5.9 4.8 1.9 67.0 64.3 1.3 3.6 5.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 6.8 7.8 4.2 1.3 62.8 60.9 3.3 5.9 8.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 39 61 100 5.8 5.4 3.1 1.5 65.3 62.9 1.3 3.5 5.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 41 59 100 5.9 5.1 2.1 0.9 60.1 59.3 2.0 3.9 5.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 5.3 6.5 3.8 1.4 64.1 62.1 2.0 4.5 6.8 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 39 61 100 7.5 7.5 2.7 1.8 68.2 64.5 2.4 4.9 7.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 3.3 3.6 2.8 0.8 58.9 58.1 0.3 2.5 4.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 40 60 100 5.8 5.7 4.5 1.9 67.1 64.6 1.0 3.3 5.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------