***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.12.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.12.2015.-10.01.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 24 76 100 5.7 6.2 4.8 1.9 77.1 73.9 2.7 4.0 5.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 19 81 100 5.3 5.8 4.8 2.2 79.0 75.8 2.4 3.6 4.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 21 79 100 7.0 7.5 5.0 2.0 78.0 74.8 3.9 5.2 6.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 22 78 100 2.1 2.7 2.9 2.2 80.0 76.4 -0.6 0.5 1.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 24 76 100 6.4 7.1 3.6 2.0 78.9 75.4 3.4 4.7 5.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 26 74 100 5.9 6.1 2.8 1.6 74.9 71.3 3.1 4.3 5.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 17 83 100 5.1 5.5 4.6 2.1 78.3 75.2 2.1 3.3 4.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 17 83 100 0.4 0.8 3.4 1.9 79.5 75.7 -1.7 -0.8 0.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 21 79 100 7.4 8.1 4.5 2.0 79.5 75.8 4.1 5.5 6.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 18 82 100 6.5 7.0 3.9 1.9 79.1 75.3 3.4 4.7 5.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 25 75 100 6.7 7.3 3.5 1.8 77.7 74.5 3.6 4.9 6.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 22 78 100 6.9 7.4 3.4 1.8 77.1 74.0 3.9 5.2 6.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 28 72 100 6.5 6.8 3.1 1.5 74.5 71.6 3.4 4.8 6.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 20 80 100 7.5 8.0 4.8 2.0 78.4 75.1 4.3 5.6 6.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 22 78 100 5.4 6.2 3.6 2.4 81.8 77.7 2.5 3.7 4.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 27 73 100 7.1 7.6 3.1 1.7 76.3 73.1 4.0 5.4 6.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 20 80 100 4.8 5.4 4.6 2.2 79.2 75.8 1.9 3.2 4.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 20 80 100 4.3 4.7 3.9 1.9 78.5 74.8 1.8 2.9 3.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 19 81 100 6.0 6.6 5.0 2.2 79.2 76.0 2.9 4.2 5.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 18 82 100 3.5 4.2 2.7 2.0 80.4 76.1 0.5 1.8 2.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 22 78 100 6.9 7.5 4.8 2.0 78.7 75.1 3.8 5.1 6.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 20 80 100 5.6 6.2 4.8 2.3 79.8 76.4 2.6 3.9 5.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 20 80 100 5.8 6.3 5.1 2.2 79.2 76.0 2.8 4.0 5.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 20 80 100 7.7 8.2 4.7 1.9 78.0 74.6 4.3 5.7 7.1 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 24 76 100 5.4 5.9 3.7 2.0 78.8 75.2 2.7 3.8 4.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 22 78 100 5.8 5.9 2.7 1.5 73.6 70.9 3.1 4.3 5.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 25 75 100 6.8 7.3 4.2 1.9 77.2 73.8 3.6 4.9 6.2 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 22 78 100 6.5 7.2 3.3 2.3 80.0 76.2 3.7 4.9 6.0 28 Zajecar 36700G16 0 19 81 100 3.7 4.2 3.5 1.9 79.2 75.3 0.9 2.1 3.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 19 81 100 5.4 5.9 4.8 2.1 78.5 75.3 2.4 3.6 4.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------