***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.12.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.12.2015.-20.12.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 76 24 0 100 4.0 3.7 3.0 23.9 24.7 21.1 5.3 9.3 14.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 67 33 0 100 3.4 3.1 2.9 26.4 27.3 22.8 4.0 7.1 11.4 30 Becej 27400G00 79 21 0 100 3.2 2.4 2.9 23.0 21.0 18.7 4.6 9.2 15.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 87 13 0 100 4.1 3.8 4.0 24.1 19.0 18.2 6.4 10.2 14.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 92 8 0 100 3.1 2.7 3.5 23.1 16.9 16.1 5.8 9.8 15.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 85 15 0 100 2.6 2.2 3.3 24.4 19.5 18.1 4.1 7.5 11.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 67 33 0 100 3.9 3.8 3.0 28.1 29.1 23.8 4.5 7.7 12.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 89 11 0 100 7.8 7.3 3.6 23.2 17.9 16.4 11.0 15.5 20.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 85 15 0 100 2.6 2.8 4.7 32.5 24.3 22.6 4.3 7.9 12.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 86 14 0 100 4.2 4.2 4.4 29.0 21.5 19.8 6.6 10.9 16.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 89 11 0 100 2.6 2.0 3.3 22.6 16.8 15.7 4.7 8.4 13.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 90 10 0 100 3.6 3.2 3.1 21.8 17.0 15.6 5.8 9.2 13.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 91 9 0 100 4.9 4.0 3.2 22.2 14.8 14.5 7.4 11.0 15.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 87 13 0 100 3.7 3.2 3.4 23.5 19.7 17.9 6.6 12.2 20.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 89 11 0 100 2.2 1.5 2.6 16.6 17.0 15.4 4.3 8.5 14.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 90 10 0 100 3.6 3.0 3.3 22.7 16.2 15.5 5.8 9.2 13.4 30 Nis 06700G01 63 37 0 100 3.3 2.9 2.8 25.5 28.1 22.7 3.6 6.6 10.7 30 Palic 37000G16 88 12 0 100 3.3 3.3 4.5 28.9 21.2 19.6 5.8 10.0 15.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 74 26 0 100 2.6 2.0 2.8 24.1 24.5 20.7 3.3 6.9 12.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 95 5 0 100 4.0 3.4 3.7 19.9 15.5 14.3 7.6 12.7 19.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 80 20 0 100 3.5 3.3 4.1 29.3 24.4 22.6 5.0 9.2 14.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 77 23 0 100 2.4 2.3 2.7 22.9 25.1 21.0 3.3 6.2 10.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 82 18 0 100 2.4 2.0 2.7 21.6 20.8 18.2 3.7 7.0 11.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 86 14 0 100 3.5 3.3 3.9 27.3 21.3 19.6 6.0 11.1 18.2 28 Valjevo 28500G11 84 16 0 100 2.3 1.5 3.1 20.6 17.9 16.2 3.8 7.7 13.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 93 7 0 100 3.4 2.4 2.6 17.7 12.5 11.8 5.7 9.1 13.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 78 22 0 100 3.0 2.7 3.4 25.1 24.4 20.8 4.1 8.4 14.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 89 11 0 100 3.2 2.8 3.4 22.0 18.1 17.0 5.3 8.7 13.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 91 9 0 100 7.1 6.9 4.1 25.3 18.4 17.1 11.6 18.4 26.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 69 31 0 100 3.4 2.9 2.9 26.0 26.1 22.0 4.1 7.6 12.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------