***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.12.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.12.2015.-27.12.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 3.5 8.0 8.8 78.2 56.1 43.1 3.3 6.5 10.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 3.9 9.6 8.8 84.0 58.4 43.8 4.1 7.5 12.0 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 5.1 10.9 8.4 80.0 55.6 42.8 5.1 9.3 15.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 5.8 9.8 7.3 65.9 50.3 40.2 5.8 9.7 14.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 5.5 9.3 6.8 63.0 47.2 36.7 5.8 10.2 15.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 5.7 9.7 7.1 68.2 51.0 39.8 5.6 9.5 14.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 3.9 9.8 9.0 84.3 58.0 43.4 3.9 7.5 12.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 7.8 13.9 8.3 72.6 52.2 40.1 8.3 13.2 19.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 3.8 7.6 8.3 76.2 53.7 43.6 3.6 6.7 11.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 4.5 8.9 8.7 77.1 53.6 42.1 4.5 8.0 12.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 5.5 10.2 6.9 70.4 51.5 39.7 5.5 9.8 15.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 5.2 9.0 7.0 69.1 51.4 40.0 5.1 8.6 13.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 5.0 8.6 6.5 64.8 48.9 37.5 4.9 8.9 14.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 7.5 14.1 9.9 84.9 55.9 42.4 7.7 12.3 17.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 3.9 6.7 6.5 56.7 47.2 36.8 3.4 7.6 14.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 5.2 8.8 6.6 68.2 51.1 40.1 4.9 8.5 13.2 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 3.7 9.7 8.7 85.9 59.0 43.5 3.8 7.3 12.2 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 4.1 8.0 10.1 81.7 54.7 43.6 4.1 7.1 10.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 4.6 10.7 8.7 83.7 57.8 43.4 4.7 8.5 13.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 6.1 10.9 12.0 76.6 53.8 41.8 6.3 9.9 14.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 5.2 9.7 8.3 76.4 53.7 42.8 5.2 8.8 13.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 4.1 10.1 9.0 85.1 58.3 43.0 4.3 7.9 12.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 4.1 9.1 8.8 83.4 56.6 42.5 4.1 7.4 12.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 5.0 10.3 9.3 83.2 55.6 43.6 5.0 8.8 13.7 28 Valjevo 28500G11 62 38 0 100 5.0 10.1 9.0 71.4 51.5 39.8 5.3 9.7 15.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 4.3 7.1 6.3 58.8 46.2 35.9 4.4 8.0 12.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 4.4 9.7 9.6 77.7 54.7 41.8 4.5 8.3 13.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 4.9 8.3 6.5 61.2 48.6 38.3 4.5 8.7 14.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 7.6 14.8 11.0 80.6 54.8 43.1 7.8 13.1 19.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 62 38 0 100 3.8 9.7 8.8 82.4 57.8 43.7 4.1 7.6 12.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------