***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.12.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.12.2020.-20.12.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 0 100 100 1.5 4.1 3.2 4.8 92.3 91.6 -3.3 -1.6 0.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 1 99 100 1.2 2.9 2.1 4.0 88.1 87.1 -3.5 -1.7 -0.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 0 100 100 2.9 4.9 2.9 4.4 90.6 89.8 -1.6 0.0 1.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 0 100 100 -2.0 0.3 0.7 4.8 90.3 89.8 -7.2 -5.3 -3.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 0 100 100 0.6 2.5 2.0 4.9 91.0 90.5 -3.6 -2.1 -0.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 0 100 100 0.1 2.2 -0.1 4.9 91.8 91.3 -3.9 -2.4 -1.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 0 100 100 1.1 2.8 2.3 4.2 89.0 87.9 -3.6 -1.9 -0.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 0 100 100 -3.7 -1.8 -0.2 4.7 89.4 88.8 -8.6 -6.8 -5.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 0 100 100 1.3 3.7 1.8 4.8 92.8 92.2 -3.0 -1.5 0.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 0 100 100 0.5 2.0 0.2 4.6 89.4 88.8 -3.4 -2.0 -0.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 0 100 100 0.8 2.8 1.5 4.8 91.6 91.0 -3.4 -1.9 -0.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 0 100 100 0.3 2.3 0.9 4.9 90.7 89.9 -4.1 -2.5 -1.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 0 100 100 0.5 2.0 0.4 4.4 89.2 88.4 -3.3 -1.9 -0.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 0 100 100 1.6 2.4 0.5 3.7 84.4 83.7 -2.9 -1.3 0.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 0 100 100 0.3 3.3 2.8 5.2 95.1 94.4 -3.7 -2.3 -0.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 0 100 100 1.2 3.0 0.9 4.8 91.2 90.6 -2.7 -1.3 0.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 3 97 100 0.7 1.8 1.7 3.7 85.5 84.5 -3.6 -2.0 -0.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 1 99 100 -1.1 0.1 -0.5 4.3 86.3 85.7 -5.4 -3.8 -2.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 1 99 100 1.3 2.9 1.9 3.8 88.0 87.0 -3.5 -1.7 -0.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 2 98 100 -2.1 -0.4 -1.2 4.6 86.4 85.5 -8.1 -5.9 -3.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 0 100 100 1.5 3.8 2.6 4.6 91.2 90.5 -3.4 -1.6 0.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 5 95 100 0.9 1.8 1.5 3.3 83.3 82.3 -3.6 -1.9 -0.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 0 100 100 0.9 2.5 1.8 3.8 88.6 87.7 -3.6 -2.0 -0.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 1 99 100 0.1 1.1 0.6 3.8 85.6 84.9 -3.7 -2.3 -1.0 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 0 100 100 0.8 2.9 2.9 5.0 92.2 91.6 -3.2 -1.7 -0.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 0 100 100 0.4 2.1 0.6 4.8 90.2 89.4 -3.4 -2.0 -0.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 0 100 100 2.1 4.5 2.9 4.8 91.3 90.4 -3.1 -1.2 0.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 0 100 100 -0.2 2.0 1.3 5.0 91.8 91.2 -4.6 -3.0 -1.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 1 99 100 -1.2 0.4 -1.0 4.6 87.4 86.8 -6.2 -4.4 -2.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 0 100 100 1.3 3.2 2.6 4.3 90.2 89.3 -3.2 -1.5 0.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------