***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.12.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.12.2020.-20.12.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 2 98 100 7.4 9.0 8.2 4.5 87.3 86.3 2.4 4.2 6.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 4 96 100 7.0 8.1 7.6 3.9 84.7 83.3 2.1 3.9 5.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 4 96 100 8.9 10.3 8.6 4.4 85.5 84.0 3.5 5.5 7.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 23 77 100 3.2 3.5 4.0 2.9 74.5 73.6 -1.7 0.4 2.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 5 95 100 7.9 9.0 7.0 4.2 84.0 82.7 3.1 4.9 6.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 6 94 100 7.9 9.0 6.2 4.3 84.2 83.1 3.0 4.8 6.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 3 97 100 6.7 8.2 7.7 4.1 87.0 85.6 1.8 3.6 5.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 4 96 100 2.1 2.9 6.6 4.3 83.1 82.2 -2.2 -0.6 0.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 3 97 100 9.0 10.2 7.7 4.2 84.3 83.2 3.6 5.6 7.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 6 94 100 8.0 9.1 7.3 4.5 84.1 83.0 3.1 5.0 6.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 7 93 100 8.2 9.5 7.7 4.4 84.6 83.4 3.3 5.2 6.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 7 93 100 8.8 9.9 6.6 4.0 82.4 81.5 3.3 5.4 7.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 10 90 100 8.2 9.3 7.5 4.1 83.1 81.8 3.2 5.1 6.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 17 83 100 9.0 10.8 8.4 4.5 83.8 81.7 3.5 5.8 7.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 10 90 100 6.3 6.3 5.5 2.7 75.5 75.1 2.2 3.8 5.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 6 94 100 8.9 10.2 7.1 4.4 84.7 83.5 3.8 5.7 7.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 9 91 100 6.0 7.1 7.0 3.6 83.7 82.1 1.7 3.4 4.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 7 93 100 5.6 6.9 7.5 4.9 85.8 84.5 1.2 2.9 4.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 7 93 100 7.7 8.9 7.7 3.8 83.4 81.9 2.4 4.4 6.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 4 96 100 5.6 7.0 6.5 4.9 86.1 85.1 0.6 2.4 4.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 4 96 100 8.5 9.9 8.5 4.4 85.7 84.4 3.5 5.4 7.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 18 82 100 6.6 7.6 6.9 3.2 80.7 78.9 2.1 4.0 5.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 11 89 100 7.2 8.2 7.7 3.8 82.3 80.7 2.5 4.3 6.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 11 89 100 8.4 9.9 8.4 4.5 84.6 83.0 3.7 5.5 7.3 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 4 96 100 6.9 8.0 7.5 4.3 85.3 84.3 2.6 4.2 5.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 4 96 100 7.6 8.0 5.8 3.4 80.4 79.7 3.2 4.8 6.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 2 98 100 8.5 10.3 8.1 4.5 87.8 86.7 3.4 5.3 7.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 19 81 100 7.8 8.0 5.0 3.0 75.0 74.1 2.6 4.7 6.7 28 Zajecar 36700G16 0 4 96 100 5.5 7.2 7.2 5.0 86.9 85.8 0.2 2.2 4.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 3 97 100 7.0 8.4 8.0 4.2 86.3 85.1 2.2 4.0 5.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------