***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.12.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.12.2020.-20.12.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 86 14 0 100 3.2 3.2 2.1 19.6 21.3 18.6 5.3 9.3 14.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 82 18 0 100 2.6 2.4 2.1 21.9 22.0 18.1 4.0 7.1 11.4 30 Becej 27400G00 86 14 0 100 2.7 2.2 1.9 18.0 19.5 17.4 4.6 9.2 15.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 70 30 0 100 5.3 5.7 4.1 29.8 29.6 27.3 6.4 10.2 14.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 76 24 0 100 4.3 4.2 3.4 26.8 25.1 23.1 5.8 9.8 15.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 66 34 0 100 3.7 3.9 4.3 34.3 31.6 28.5 4.1 7.5 11.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 84 16 0 100 2.9 2.9 2.1 22.5 23.1 19.0 4.5 7.7 12.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 74 26 0 100 9.1 8.8 3.7 27.5 23.9 21.9 11.0 15.5 20.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 81 19 0 100 2.9 2.6 2.9 24.4 23.3 21.4 4.3 7.9 12.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 77 23 0 100 4.9 4.2 3.3 24.5 21.6 20.0 6.6 10.9 16.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 69 31 0 100 3.9 3.8 4.0 30.8 28.4 25.8 4.7 8.4 13.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 69 31 0 100 4.9 4.9 3.8 30.3 27.8 25.1 5.8 9.2 13.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 13.1 8.5 6.4 45.5 38.3 34.3 7.4 11.0 15.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 85 15 0 100 3.9 3.0 2.5 19.1 17.8 16.2 6.6 12.2 20.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 11.6 6.2 5.4 43.0 41.6 37.6 4.3 8.5 14.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 65 35 0 100 5.1 5.7 4.7 35.0 32.5 29.2 5.8 9.2 13.4 30 Nis 06700G01 77 23 0 100 2.6 2.4 2.5 24.9 24.6 20.2 3.6 6.6 10.7 30 Palic 37000G16 85 15 0 100 3.5 2.9 2.8 20.4 18.4 17.1 5.8 10.0 15.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 82 18 0 100 2.1 1.5 2.1 21.0 21.1 17.8 3.3 6.9 12.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 75 25 0 100 5.9 5.4 4.4 28.0 24.2 21.8 7.6 12.7 19.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 79 21 0 100 3.6 3.3 2.8 24.0 23.8 21.4 5.0 9.2 14.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 82 18 0 100 2.1 2.3 2.7 26.0 24.9 20.8 3.3 6.2 10.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 76 24 0 100 2.7 1.8 2.1 20.2 20.0 17.8 3.7 7.0 11.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 90 10 0 100 3.2 2.5 2.1 17.4 17.5 16.1 6.0 11.1 18.2 28 Valjevo 28500G11 77 23 0 100 2.8 2.3 3.0 24.7 23.4 21.2 3.8 7.7 13.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 67 33 0 100 4.9 5.0 4.0 32.0 28.8 26.4 5.7 9.1 13.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 85 15 0 100 2.5 2.1 2.2 20.4 21.0 18.4 4.1 8.4 14.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 5.0 5.8 4.7 36.6 35.6 32.5 5.3 8.7 13.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 84 16 0 100 8.0 7.1 3.1 21.8 19.3 17.8 11.6 18.4 26.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 85 15 0 100 2.5 2.1 1.9 19.8 20.3 17.4 4.1 7.6 12.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------