***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.12.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.12.2020.-27.12.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 8.9 9.6 11.3 96.2 61.8 51.3 3.3 6.5 10.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 9.8 12.4 11.6 110.4 66.9 54.5 4.1 7.5 12.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 12.1 12.6 11.0 91.7 60.2 49.8 5.1 9.3 15.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 11.9 13.8 12.7 99.7 63.8 53.6 5.8 9.7 14.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 12.7 12.9 11.7 87.5 58.6 50.6 5.8 10.2 15.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 12.1 14.9 12.1 111.5 67.3 56.8 5.6 9.5 14.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 10.3 13.4 11.6 113.7 67.9 54.1 3.9 7.5 12.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 16.0 16.8 11.9 92.8 60.3 51.1 8.3 13.2 19.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 8.6 9.0 12.1 88.6 59.3 51.1 3.6 6.7 11.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 10.2 10.8 12.1 91.6 60.0 51.0 4.5 8.0 12.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 12.6 12.4 11.0 87.7 58.3 49.6 5.5 9.8 15.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 5.4 11.3 10.9 91.7 60.1 50.8 5.1 8.6 13.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 5.3 11.5 10.9 88.8 58.9 48.4 4.9 8.9 14.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 15.1 17.2 14.3 102.2 64.2 53.7 7.7 12.3 17.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 10.8 15.9 13.5 115.2 69.3 55.4 3.4 7.6 14.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 5.2 11.4 11.1 92.1 60.4 51.3 4.9 8.5 13.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 9.7 13.7 12.1 119.3 69.7 55.1 3.8 7.3 12.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 9.0 9.3 12.7 92.1 60.1 50.7 4.1 7.1 10.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 11.0 13.4 11.7 106.7 65.7 54.5 4.7 8.5 13.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 12.0 12.8 15.5 95.1 61.1 51.6 6.3 9.9 14.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 10.8 11.1 11.6 88.8 58.8 49.9 5.2 8.8 13.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 10.2 13.4 12.5 113.7 68.0 55.1 4.3 7.9 12.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 9.7 11.6 12.3 104.3 64.9 54.2 4.1 7.4 12.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 11.3 11.6 12.6 92.1 60.1 49.9 5.0 8.8 13.7 28 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 5.8 12.5 11.8 89.4 58.8 48.6 5.3 9.7 15.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 10.4 13.6 13.7 114.5 68.1 56.8 4.4 8.0 12.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 5.0 11.8 11.6 95.6 61.3 50.6 4.5 8.3 13.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 11.7 14.0 12.2 103.0 65.2 53.4 4.5 8.7 14.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 16.4 17.2 13.5 94.2 60.7 51.5 7.8 13.1 19.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 4.5 12.0 11.2 103.3 64.5 52.9 4.1 7.6 12.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------