***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.12.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.01.2021.-10.01.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 2.3 3.9 6.8 65.1 47.5 36.9 2.3 4.2 6.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 2.6 4.6 5.9 65.5 48.9 39.5 2.7 4.8 7.7 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 3.4 6.2 6.9 66.2 48.7 38.3 3.5 6.5 10.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 3.4 7.1 8.5 73.5 53.3 39.0 3.5 6.4 10.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 3.2 6.8 8.4 70.7 51.5 39.0 3.4 6.4 10.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 65 35 0 100 2.7 6.7 8.1 77.0 54.3 41.0 3.0 5.7 9.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 2.8 4.8 5.9 66.1 49.7 40.3 2.7 4.8 7.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 4.9 9.2 9.2 73.4 52.5 40.9 4.9 8.7 13.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 2.7 5.6 8.8 71.7 51.3 39.7 2.8 5.3 9.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 2.9 6.2 9.4 73.7 52.0 40.8 2.8 5.8 10.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 2.6 5.6 8.3 72.7 51.9 40.3 2.5 5.1 8.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 2.8 6.6 8.3 74.2 52.9 40.5 2.7 5.8 10.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 61 39 0 100 2.9 6.2 8.2 71.8 51.4 39.8 2.9 5.9 10.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 5.0 9.2 9.3 74.4 52.5 42.2 5.1 8.6 13.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 2.5 6.7 8.7 79.6 57.2 39.9 2.6 5.2 9.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 62 38 0 100 2.5 5.7 8.0 72.5 51.9 40.1 2.5 5.2 9.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 6.5 5.1 6.4 71.3 52.3 42.2 2.4 4.7 7.9 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 3.1 6.1 10.0 76.1 53.2 42.1 2.7 5.5 9.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 3.2 5.4 6.1 65.6 48.5 39.2 3.3 5.7 8.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 3.9 7.7 11.6 70.1 51.2 40.6 3.6 7.3 12.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 3.1 6.1 7.9 68.7 49.8 38.4 3.2 6.1 10.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 3.1 5.8 6.9 72.9 52.4 41.7 2.9 5.4 8.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 3.5 5.7 6.7 67.0 48.9 39.7 3.5 5.9 9.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 3.9 7.5 9.0 74.7 52.8 42.0 3.9 6.9 10.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 3.5 6.0 7.9 67.0 49.1 37.9 3.6 6.2 9.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 2.4 6.5 8.9 80.5 56.6 42.4 2.1 5.0 9.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 3.0 4.9 7.3 67.2 48.7 38.3 2.9 5.1 8.2 29 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 2.3 5.8 8.4 77.3 55.5 40.1 2.3 4.8 8.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 4.4 9.3 10.4 74.3 52.3 41.4 4.2 8.4 14.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 2.5 4.5 6.0 63.8 47.8 38.3 2.7 4.9 7.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------