***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.12.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.12.2020.-10.01.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 72 28 0 100 20.5 24.9 29.8 69.5 33.6 31.8 24.7 35.1 47.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 24.2 27.6 28.1 73.6 37.0 34.9 25.6 34.5 44.6 30 Becej 27400G00 73 27 0 100 30.9 35.9 29.8 68.3 33.0 31.6 35.9 46.8 58.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 69 31 0 100 30.2 37.4 36.6 73.4 38.5 36.2 34.1 44.3 55.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 70 30 0 100 33.1 37.7 34.4 69.0 33.8 32.9 37.2 46.7 56.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 44.2 35.7 35.5 79.2 43.3 41.2 30.3 39.5 49.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 24.7 29.1 28.0 75.0 37.5 35.1 26.6 36.3 47.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 47.8 52.0 37.4 73.5 36.6 35.7 49.8 60.0 70.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 70 30 0 100 25.4 29.3 35.3 70.1 34.1 33.1 28.8 36.7 45.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 61 39 0 100 34.8 38.1 37.3 71.8 35.3 34.5 36.9 45.1 53.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 34.2 37.5 34.0 70.6 35.6 34.9 36.4 44.0 52.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 32.6 36.6 33.9 73.1 37.3 36.2 34.5 43.2 52.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 35.4 38.5 35.8 73.4 38.4 37.1 35.8 45.0 54.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 63 37 0 100 41.5 47.9 39.3 74.6 37.2 34.9 45.0 56.8 69.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 29.9 42.2 39.3 84.1 49.5 43.5 30.8 42.4 55.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 28.2 32.1 33.9 71.6 37.0 36.0 29.9 39.1 49.1 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 23.9 29.1 28.9 76.3 38.9 36.2 26.0 35.2 45.5 30 Palic 37000G16 67 33 0 100 30.2 34.1 38.8 72.5 35.2 34.1 33.2 41.0 49.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 25.8 29.7 28.9 72.9 36.6 34.5 27.8 37.6 48.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 36.4 41.8 48.2 75.0 37.4 35.6 38.7 50.3 62.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 72 28 0 100 28.0 32.6 33.1 69.3 33.5 32.1 32.4 41.6 52.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 23.8 28.9 30.6 76.3 39.2 36.7 25.7 34.8 44.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 65 35 0 100 23.8 28.4 31.3 73.4 37.0 34.4 26.5 35.0 44.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 68 32 0 100 35.8 40.5 35.9 71.3 34.6 33.1 39.6 49.0 59.2 28 Valjevo 28500G11 69 31 0 100 27.3 30.9 33.6 68.9 32.3 31.4 31.3 42.8 55.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 43.6 35.2 37.7 81.5 44.1 41.3 28.9 38.7 49.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 68 32 0 100 24.5 28.3 31.1 69.6 33.0 31.6 28.3 39.8 53.3 29 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 28.7 36.0 36.0 76.9 42.7 39.3 30.8 40.2 50.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 65 35 0 100 54.0 59.8 41.4 73.3 35.8 34.5 58.2 68.7 80.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 62 38 0 100 23.5 27.0 27.9 71.2 35.3 33.5 25.6 35.5 46.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------