***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.12.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.12.2014.-04.01.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 26 74 100 6.4 7.1 4.9 2.5 76.3 69.5 1.5 3.6 5.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 27 73 100 5.9 6.6 4.8 2.5 76.5 69.5 1.5 3.4 5.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 26 74 100 8.0 8.6 5.0 2.5 74.8 68.5 2.7 5.0 7.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 27 73 100 3.5 3.8 2.5 2.2 73.6 68.3 -1.3 0.8 2.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 28 72 100 7.4 7.6 3.1 2.2 72.6 67.4 2.5 4.7 6.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 26 74 100 7.0 6.8 2.4 2.0 70.3 66.5 2.4 4.4 6.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 26 74 100 5.6 6.3 4.7 2.5 76.8 69.7 1.1 3.0 4.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 27 73 100 0.8 0.7 2.6 1.9 70.1 65.9 -2.7 -1.2 0.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 28 72 100 8.3 8.5 4.0 2.3 72.5 67.2 3.2 5.4 7.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 27 73 100 7.3 7.2 3.3 2.0 70.6 66.1 2.7 4.7 6.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 28 72 100 7.5 7.6 2.9 2.1 71.7 66.9 2.6 4.8 6.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 27 73 100 8.0 8.0 2.7 1.9 70.7 66.2 3.0 5.2 7.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 26 74 100 7.5 7.3 2.4 1.9 70.1 66.0 2.6 4.7 6.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 26 74 100 8.9 8.9 4.5 2.2 72.0 66.3 3.2 5.7 8.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 28 72 100 6.4 6.9 2.8 2.2 74.4 69.2 1.9 3.9 5.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 27 73 100 8.2 8.2 2.6 2.0 71.3 66.7 3.2 5.4 7.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 27 73 100 5.4 6.1 4.6 2.4 76.7 69.3 1.1 3.0 4.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 26 74 100 5.2 4.9 3.2 1.9 69.4 65.2 1.2 2.9 4.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 26 74 100 6.9 7.6 5.0 2.5 75.9 69.1 1.8 4.0 6.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 26 74 100 4.2 3.7 1.6 1.7 68.2 64.8 -0.7 1.4 3.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 27 73 100 7.8 8.2 4.5 2.4 74.0 68.1 2.7 5.0 7.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 27 73 100 6.4 6.9 4.8 2.3 75.3 68.2 1.8 3.8 5.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 25 75 100 6.7 7.1 5.1 2.4 74.7 68.2 1.9 3.9 5.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 27 73 100 8.9 8.9 4.3 2.2 71.6 66.3 3.4 5.8 8.0 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 27 73 100 5.9 6.4 3.4 2.3 75.2 69.0 1.7 3.5 5.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 25 75 100 6.7 6.5 2.3 1.8 70.7 66.5 2.5 4.3 6.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 28 72 100 7.7 8.4 4.2 2.4 76.1 69.3 2.7 4.9 6.9 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 27 73 100 7.9 8.3 2.7 2.2 73.4 68.3 2.8 5.1 7.2 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 26 74 100 4.6 4.2 2.5 1.8 68.7 64.9 -0.1 2.0 3.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 26 74 100 6.0 6.7 4.9 2.5 76.3 69.5 1.3 3.3 5.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------