***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.12.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.01.2015.-11.01.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 33 67 100 7.2 6.7 3.9 1.6 66.8 64.0 2.0 4.4 6.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 32 68 100 6.5 6.0 3.9 1.8 67.3 64.9 1.2 3.6 5.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 36 64 100 7.8 7.5 4.1 1.7 67.3 64.5 2.3 4.9 7.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 1.5 2.8 1.8 1.6 67.5 64.4 -1.4 0.7 2.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 38 62 100 7.1 6.9 2.4 1.6 66.9 63.8 2.0 4.4 6.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 6.5 5.5 1.7 1.1 62.0 59.3 1.8 4.0 6.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 30 70 100 6.1 5.5 3.8 1.7 66.8 64.4 0.9 3.2 5.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 33 67 100 1.4 0.9 2.1 1.2 64.1 61.5 -1.7 -0.3 1.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 37 63 100 8.4 8.0 3.3 1.5 66.4 63.5 2.8 5.5 8.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 34 66 100 7.0 6.3 2.8 1.3 64.8 62.2 2.0 4.3 6.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 35 65 100 7.5 7.0 2.3 1.4 66.5 63.0 2.1 4.6 7.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 33 67 100 8.1 7.3 2.2 1.3 65.0 61.7 2.6 5.1 7.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 33 67 100 7.3 6.3 1.8 1.1 63.3 60.1 2.1 4.5 6.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 33 67 100 8.7 8.1 3.9 1.6 66.6 64.1 2.7 5.4 8.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 36 64 100 6.7 6.5 2.1 1.6 67.7 64.5 1.6 4.0 6.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 35 65 100 8.0 7.4 1.9 1.3 65.4 61.9 2.6 5.1 7.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 32 68 100 5.8 5.3 3.8 1.7 66.8 64.5 0.8 3.1 5.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 32 68 100 4.8 4.0 2.7 1.2 63.4 61.5 0.7 2.5 4.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 32 68 100 7.1 6.7 4.1 1.8 67.7 65.1 1.4 4.0 6.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 33 67 100 4.2 3.1 1.2 1.0 61.5 59.9 -0.4 1.7 3.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 37 63 100 7.7 7.5 3.7 1.6 66.9 63.9 2.4 5.0 7.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 32 68 100 6.9 6.5 4.0 1.8 67.5 65.1 1.4 3.9 6.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 34 66 100 6.4 6.2 4.3 1.8 67.8 65.1 1.2 3.6 5.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 32 68 100 9.3 8.5 3.7 1.5 65.6 63.2 3.4 6.1 8.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 36 64 100 6.1 5.8 2.5 1.5 66.7 63.8 1.5 3.7 5.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 31 69 100 6.4 5.5 1.6 1.0 62.9 59.5 2.2 4.1 5.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 35 65 100 7.5 7.0 3.3 1.5 66.3 63.4 2.1 4.6 7.0 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 37 63 100 7.7 7.5 2.0 1.6 67.3 64.2 2.5 5.0 7.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 33 67 100 5.4 4.4 2.1 1.2 62.7 61.0 0.6 2.8 4.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 31 69 100 6.4 6.0 4.0 1.7 67.3 64.7 1.0 3.5 5.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------