***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.12.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.12.2014.-11.01.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 15 85 100 6.0 7.1 5.2 2.5 84.8 78.8 2.7 4.0 5.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 18 82 100 5.4 6.6 5.2 2.7 85.7 80.0 2.4 3.6 4.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 16 84 100 7.2 8.3 5.4 2.5 84.5 78.6 3.8 5.2 6.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 16 84 100 2.3 2.8 2.7 2.1 80.3 75.2 -0.6 0.5 1.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 14 86 100 6.7 7.4 3.5 2.2 81.4 75.8 3.4 4.7 5.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 20 80 100 6.0 6.6 2.9 2.0 79.6 74.1 3.1 4.3 5.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 18 82 100 5.2 6.4 5.1 2.6 85.6 79.9 2.0 3.3 4.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 22 78 100 0.4 0.9 3.2 2.0 81.0 75.2 -1.7 -0.8 0.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 16 84 100 7.6 8.5 4.5 2.3 82.6 76.7 4.1 5.5 6.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 20 80 100 6.5 7.4 3.9 2.2 81.6 75.8 3.4 4.7 5.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 16 84 100 7.0 7.8 3.5 2.2 81.5 75.9 3.5 4.9 6.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 21 79 100 7.0 7.8 3.3 2.0 80.6 74.9 3.8 5.2 6.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 23 77 100 6.6 7.4 3.2 2.0 79.8 74.2 3.4 4.8 6.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 16 84 100 7.7 8.7 5.1 2.5 83.7 77.7 4.3 5.7 6.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 15 85 100 5.6 6.2 3.3 2.1 80.5 75.5 2.4 3.7 4.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 19 81 100 7.4 8.1 3.2 2.1 80.6 75.0 4.0 5.4 6.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 18 82 100 4.9 6.2 5.2 2.7 86.2 80.4 1.9 3.2 4.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 19 81 100 4.4 4.9 3.8 2.0 80.4 74.6 1.8 2.8 3.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 18 82 100 6.1 7.3 5.4 2.7 85.4 79.7 2.9 4.2 5.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 23 77 100 3.4 4.0 2.2 1.8 79.2 73.6 0.5 1.7 2.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 14 86 100 7.1 8.1 5.0 2.4 83.8 77.8 3.8 5.1 6.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 19 81 100 5.7 7.0 5.4 2.7 85.9 80.0 2.6 3.9 5.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 18 82 100 5.8 7.0 5.5 2.6 84.8 79.0 2.7 4.0 5.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 17 83 100 7.9 8.9 4.9 2.3 82.6 76.6 4.3 5.8 7.1 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 12 88 100 5.7 6.5 3.8 2.4 84.3 78.3 2.6 3.8 4.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 24 76 100 5.8 6.4 2.8 1.8 78.6 73.4 3.1 4.2 5.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 15 85 100 7.0 8.2 4.6 2.5 84.9 78.6 3.5 4.9 6.2 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 19 81 100 6.6 7.2 3.0 2.1 79.8 74.7 3.4 4.7 6.0 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 22 78 100 3.8 4.4 3.1 1.9 79.9 74.2 1.0 2.2 3.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 18 82 100 5.5 6.7 5.3 2.6 85.2 79.6 2.4 3.6 4.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------