***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.12.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.12.2014.-28.12.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9.8 12.1 11.4 105.7 65.6 56.1 3.6 7.1 12.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 10.3 11.9 10.4 100.0 63.6 54.0 4.7 8.2 12.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 13.0 15.2 11.4 102.2 64.2 54.4 5.8 10.1 15.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 11.8 15.3 12.6 111.2 67.4 55.0 5.8 9.7 14.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 12.1 16.6 13.3 116.2 68.8 57.2 5.6 9.8 15.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 11.0 15.9 13.4 123.7 71.0 61.6 5.1 8.9 13.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 10.5 12.7 10.7 102.7 64.4 55.0 3.9 7.8 13.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 15.5 21.5 15.3 126.3 71.6 60.5 8.5 13.1 18.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 8.4 11.7 14.0 115.2 68.3 57.0 3.4 6.6 10.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 10.5 14.8 15.4 121.7 70.3 59.3 5.2 8.7 13.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 12.5 17.6 13.0 121.9 70.5 59.2 5.7 10.0 15.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 12.3 17.8 13.5 127.9 72.1 61.2 5.9 9.9 15.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 39 61 100 15.6 17.2 13.8 131.2 73.0 63.4 5.2 9.0 14.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 14.7 16.5 13.7 100.3 63.0 53.7 7.2 11.9 17.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 10.9 13.2 11.0 97.5 63.3 49.9 3.5 7.9 14.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 10.2 14.7 12.6 123.6 70.9 60.1 4.7 8.2 12.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 9.9 11.4 10.0 99.0 63.3 53.6 4.1 7.7 12.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 83 17 100 9.0 12.3 16.8 117.4 68.7 58.1 4.7 7.7 11.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 11.1 12.8 10.5 99.2 63.2 53.6 4.8 8.7 13.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 12.7 17.2 19.4 121.2 69.9 59.1 6.3 10.4 15.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 10.7 13.6 12.7 110.6 67.0 56.2 4.9 8.6 13.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 10.5 11.6 10.2 95.2 61.5 51.9 4.9 8.4 13.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 9.6 11.2 11.2 99.8 63.2 53.7 4.4 7.7 12.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 10.9 13.5 14.1 106.1 65.2 55.0 5.0 8.8 13.9 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 12.8 16.6 13.5 111.8 67.3 56.9 5.7 10.2 16.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 38 62 100 14.1 14.4 13.3 123.5 70.7 60.9 4.5 8.0 12.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 11.6 15.3 12.9 111.0 67.2 57.7 4.7 8.9 14.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 11.2 14.9 11.8 107.8 66.5 53.5 4.4 8.7 14.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 16.5 21.7 17.8 115.6 68.1 57.7 8.7 14.0 20.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 10.7 12.3 10.6 100.5 63.7 54.3 4.5 8.2 13.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------