***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.12.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.12.2014.-04.01.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 3.6 7.8 10.3 88.2 55.5 46.0 3.4 6.5 11.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 3.6 7.8 9.9 91.5 58.9 48.0 3.2 6.0 9.7 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 4.3 8.9 10.0 86.5 54.7 46.3 4.0 7.6 12.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 11.2 10.5 11.3 87.1 56.2 48.1 5.1 8.8 13.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 10.5 9.8 11.3 88.2 55.8 47.9 4.9 8.4 12.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 9.2 8.4 11.7 85.2 54.9 46.8 4.6 7.5 11.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 8.1 8.6 10.1 95.3 60.9 49.8 2.8 5.8 10.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 7.9 15.6 13.5 100.2 61.8 51.4 7.8 11.9 17.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 8.6 8.2 11.6 90.1 56.5 48.3 4.0 6.9 10.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 10.3 10.4 13.0 95.9 59.3 50.1 4.9 8.1 12.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 10.3 10.4 11.3 92.5 58.2 49.4 5.4 8.5 12.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 5.2 11.2 12.0 97.1 60.6 50.5 4.9 8.3 12.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 11.0 10.8 12.1 92.5 58.4 49.5 5.0 8.5 13.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 6.3 12.9 12.3 92.1 57.5 48.2 6.3 10.5 16.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 9.0 8.5 11.7 89.9 58.0 47.3 3.0 6.4 11.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 8.9 8.5 11.2 90.1 57.1 48.6 3.6 6.8 11.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 7.3 8.2 10.1 96.1 61.8 49.9 2.6 5.4 9.5 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 5.0 10.3 14.3 98.3 60.3 50.5 4.8 7.9 11.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 4.0 8.3 9.9 89.5 57.5 47.1 3.9 6.7 10.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 5.3 12.1 18.0 107.5 64.6 53.4 5.1 8.4 12.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 9.2 8.1 10.6 84.9 53.9 46.1 4.1 7.2 11.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 7.4 8.0 10.5 97.1 61.3 49.0 2.8 5.5 9.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 3.5 7.1 10.2 88.7 56.7 46.9 3.4 5.9 9.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 5.5 11.3 12.2 92.9 57.8 48.6 5.2 9.1 14.3 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 10.5 9.6 11.7 87.1 55.5 46.9 4.3 8.0 13.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 4.2 9.8 12.7 98.2 60.9 50.7 4.1 7.2 11.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 9.7 9.2 11.5 92.0 57.6 47.8 3.6 7.1 12.1 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 9.2 8.5 11.2 87.0 56.2 47.3 4.0 7.1 11.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 7.5 16.4 15.4 100.9 61.7 52.0 7.2 12.0 18.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 3.5 7.8 9.9 90.0 57.8 47.6 3.2 6.1 10.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------