***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.12.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.01.2015.-11.01.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 4.9 5.2 8.8 97.7 61.5 49.6 2.2 3.8 5.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 2.9 7.3 8.1 100.7 62.9 50.2 2.6 4.9 8.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 7.2 7.2 8.7 92.6 59.5 49.3 2.6 5.2 8.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 3.2 7.9 9.1 96.0 60.9 48.6 3.0 5.6 9.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 3.3 8.8 9.4 96.9 61.0 49.2 3.2 6.1 10.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 2.8 7.1 9.3 92.5 59.5 49.9 2.5 5.1 9.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 2.8 7.5 8.1 103.2 63.7 50.6 2.4 4.8 8.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 4.2 9.9 9.7 96.5 60.4 49.4 4.1 7.4 11.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 2.6 6.5 10.0 98.0 61.3 50.0 2.3 4.5 7.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 2.5 7.1 10.2 97.3 60.6 49.7 2.1 4.7 8.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 2.3 6.9 8.9 98.5 61.9 49.7 2.0 4.4 8.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 2.7 7.9 8.6 96.2 60.7 49.3 2.6 5.4 9.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 2.5 7.5 9.0 94.9 60.3 49.8 2.4 5.1 9.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 9.6 9.8 10.8 92.3 58.9 49.8 4.6 7.7 11.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 2.8 7.5 9.0 95.3 61.9 48.6 2.6 5.1 8.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 1.9 6.1 8.6 96.4 61.0 49.5 1.7 3.9 7.5 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 3.3 9.3 8.2 112.0 67.1 52.0 3.1 5.5 9.0 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 2.8 6.5 11.3 94.8 59.2 49.2 2.5 4.8 8.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 6.9 7.4 8.1 96.1 61.2 49.8 3.2 5.4 8.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 3.4 8.9 12.3 93.8 59.1 48.4 3.1 6.4 11.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 2.8 7.7 9.6 98.0 61.5 50.0 2.5 5.2 9.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 7.1 8.9 8.7 110.2 66.4 52.8 3.0 5.5 8.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 7.1 7.3 8.6 91.2 59.1 49.5 3.3 5.7 8.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 7.7 7.8 10.5 93.2 58.8 49.3 3.6 6.2 9.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 3.1 7.7 10.2 101.5 62.9 50.2 2.9 5.2 8.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 2.1 6.4 8.9 92.9 59.8 49.0 1.9 4.3 8.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 2.4 6.0 9.7 101.5 63.0 50.4 2.1 4.0 6.6 29 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 2.2 6.3 8.8 94.6 60.8 48.6 2.1 4.3 7.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 10.0 9.9 11.9 93.4 58.9 48.8 3.8 7.4 12.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 2.6 6.4 8.1 96.7 61.4 49.7 2.3 4.4 7.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------