***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.12.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.12.2014.-11.01.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 39.6 37.2 43.9 97.5 54.8 49.5 23.7 33.9 46.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 23.6 37.4 41.3 99.1 56.4 51.2 24.8 33.8 43.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 51.1 47.6 43.6 94.7 52.2 48.1 35.4 45.9 57.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 48.1 43.1 45.4 92.4 49.3 46.0 33.2 43.5 55.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 50.3 48.0 48.0 97.3 53.0 48.8 36.9 46.1 56.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 43.2 38.8 45.2 93.2 49.3 47.2 29.9 39.1 49.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 23.9 41.0 42.0 102.6 58.9 52.7 25.3 35.2 46.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 62.5 62.5 52.8 101.9 57.3 52.6 47.0 57.6 68.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 39.4 38.9 50.5 100.0 55.6 50.8 28.3 36.1 44.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 47.7 48.3 54.0 102.8 58.1 53.2 36.0 44.3 53.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 46.5 45.9 46.9 100.1 55.6 51.1 35.5 43.1 51.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 47.8 46.1 46.6 99.6 55.2 51.0 33.9 43.0 53.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 49.0 47.0 47.2 98.7 54.1 50.5 35.2 44.7 54.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 61.3 59.0 53.3 97.7 53.8 49.6 44.7 56.1 68.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 30.0 39.9 41.6 86.7 46.7 43.6 30.7 42.2 55.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 42.6 39.6 44.7 96.7 52.4 48.8 29.0 38.1 48.3 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 23.5 40.7 41.6 105.2 60.8 54.0 25.1 34.2 44.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 43.9 44.4 58.9 102.6 58.0 53.3 32.6 40.4 48.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 25.9 39.3 41.6 96.5 54.3 49.8 26.9 36.5 47.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 54.5 54.2 67.0 101.8 57.4 52.6 37.7 49.0 61.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 45.2 43.1 47.1 97.0 53.4 48.7 32.0 41.1 51.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 24.0 38.5 42.9 102.3 58.5 52.4 24.9 33.7 43.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 25.7 35.7 43.7 94.9 52.6 48.5 26.0 34.4 43.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 52.4 51.1 52.6 98.9 54.9 50.6 39.1 48.3 58.0 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 48.1 44.8 49.7 97.6 54.2 49.5 30.0 41.5 55.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 42.8 39.8 46.8 97.6 53.4 49.9 28.2 37.7 48.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 45.6 44.1 48.2 100.2 56.9 51.6 27.2 38.7 52.3 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 44.2 37.9 42.5 90.0 47.8 45.0 29.8 39.1 49.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 72.2 72.8 62.2 101.7 57.3 52.6 56.4 67.6 79.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 23.8 37.4 41.5 96.9 54.7 50.0 24.8 34.5 45.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------