***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.12.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.01.2014.-12.01.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 41 59 100 9999.0 -0.3 -1.3 1.5 66.8 63.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 41 59 100 -0.7 -1.0 -1.7 1.4 66.0 63.3 -5.2 -3.0 -1.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 39 61 100 1.5 1.2 -1.7 1.3 65.6 63.4 -2.8 -0.7 1.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 28 72 100 -2.9 -2.8 -4.0 2.0 71.7 69.3 -7.8 -5.6 -3.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 31 69 100 -1.1 -1.5 -3.8 1.6 67.2 65.4 -5.3 -3.4 -1.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 25 75 100 -1.9 -2.6 -5.2 1.6 66.6 65.2 -6.6 -4.6 -2.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 84 16 100 -2.1 -0.7 -1.6 1.4 65.8 63.0 -4.8 -2.7 -0.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 28 72 100 -4.8 -5.4 -4.8 1.5 64.6 63.3 -8.5 -6.9 -5.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 39 61 100 -0.3 -0.8 -3.0 1.4 64.1 62.7 -4.9 -2.6 -0.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 34 66 100 -1.1 -1.9 -4.2 1.4 63.6 62.4 -5.4 -3.4 -1.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 28 72 100 -1.1 -1.8 -4.0 1.5 65.9 64.6 -5.8 -3.7 -1.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 26 74 100 -2.0 -2.8 -4.4 1.5 65.3 63.9 -6.8 -4.7 -2.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 27 73 100 -1.5 -2.4 -4.7 1.5 64.9 63.5 -6.6 -4.4 -2.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 39 61 100 -0.1 -0.6 -3.2 1.3 64.1 62.9 -4.0 -2.1 -0.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 21 79 100 -0.8 -0.8 -3.3 2.2 72.9 70.7 -5.2 -3.3 -1.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 27 73 100 -0.5 -1.1 -4.5 1.6 66.5 65.1 -4.9 -2.9 -1.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 -2.6 -1.3 -1.6 1.4 65.2 62.7 -5.4 -3.2 -1.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 34 66 100 -3.1 -3.9 -4.8 1.4 62.7 61.6 -7.4 -5.4 -3.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 39 61 100 -0.5 -0.8 -1.8 1.4 66.0 63.4 -4.8 -2.7 -0.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 36 64 100 -5.4 -6.5 -6.0 1.3 61.8 60.6 -10.9 -8.3 -5.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 40 60 100 -0.6 -0.9 -2.2 1.4 65.2 63.1 -4.8 -2.7 -0.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 -2.5 -1.4 -1.7 1.3 64.8 62.4 -5.2 -3.2 -1.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 37 63 100 -0.7 -1.1 -2.1 1.3 65.7 63.7 -4.9 -2.9 -1.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 37 63 100 -0.9 -1.4 -3.3 1.4 64.1 62.9 -4.6 -2.8 -1.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 34 66 100 -0.5 -0.4 -3.1 1.8 69.9 67.4 -4.8 -2.8 -0.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 33 67 100 -1.5 -2.3 -4.5 1.3 63.2 62.1 -6.0 -3.9 -2.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 40 60 100 0.3 0.3 -2.1 1.6 67.8 65.1 -4.8 -2.3 0.0 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 24 76 100 -1.6 -1.7 -3.8 2.0 71.5 69.4 -6.4 -4.3 -2.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 33 67 100 -2.2 -3.2 -5.3 1.3 62.3 61.1 -6.9 -4.8 -2.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 40 60 100 -0.2 -0.4 -1.6 1.4 66.0 63.3 -4.8 -2.5 -0.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------