***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.12.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.12.2013.-29.12.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 13 87 100 9999.0 8.5 7.1 4.7 86.9 84.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 14 86 100 6.3 8.0 6.8 4.6 85.9 83.0 1.7 3.5 5.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 12 88 100 8.1 10.1 7.2 4.7 86.9 83.9 3.1 5.1 7.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 8 92 100 2.9 3.7 4.3 3.7 82.0 79.8 -1.4 0.2 1.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 10 90 100 7.5 8.8 5.2 4.1 84.2 81.7 2.8 4.6 6.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 8 92 100 6.9 8.5 5.2 4.4 86.6 83.6 2.4 4.1 5.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 15 85 100 6.0 7.8 6.7 4.6 85.9 82.9 1.4 3.3 5.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 13 87 100 1.0 2.4 5.3 4.3 86.3 83.5 -2.6 -1.2 0.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 11 89 100 8.6 10.5 6.5 4.5 86.4 83.4 3.4 5.4 7.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 12 88 100 7.8 9.7 6.1 4.5 86.7 83.7 2.8 4.8 6.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 11 89 100 8.0 9.7 5.3 4.1 85.3 82.8 2.9 4.9 6.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 12 88 100 7.8 9.4 5.3 4.1 85.6 83.1 3.1 5.0 6.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 8 92 100 7.7 9.3 5.1 4.2 86.2 83.7 2.8 4.6 6.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 12 88 100 8.7 11.0 7.3 5.0 88.0 84.8 3.5 5.5 7.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 15 85 100 5.7 6.6 4.5 3.5 81.3 79.1 1.4 3.1 4.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 9 91 100 8.3 9.8 5.0 4.1 85.3 82.7 3.3 5.3 7.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 14 86 100 5.8 7.4 6.7 4.5 85.4 82.2 1.2 3.0 4.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 13 87 100 5.7 7.6 6.3 4.8 87.6 84.5 1.4 3.1 4.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 14 86 100 7.0 8.9 7.0 4.6 86.0 83.0 2.0 4.0 5.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 15 85 100 4.1 6.1 4.7 4.5 86.8 83.8 -0.5 1.4 3.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 10 90 100 8.0 9.7 6.8 4.5 86.5 83.6 3.0 4.9 6.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 14 86 100 6.5 8.0 6.8 4.5 85.1 81.7 1.8 3.7 5.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 15 85 100 6.7 8.5 7.2 4.7 86.5 83.3 2.0 3.9 5.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 12 88 100 8.8 11.2 7.1 4.8 87.7 84.6 3.4 5.5 7.5 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 11 89 100 6.1 7.3 5.4 4.2 84.9 82.5 2.2 3.7 5.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 6 94 100 6.8 8.1 4.7 3.9 85.7 83.6 2.4 4.0 5.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 13 87 100 7.7 9.5 6.3 4.4 86.0 83.3 2.8 4.7 6.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 12 88 100 7.0 8.0 4.7 3.8 82.3 80.0 2.3 4.2 5.9 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 12 88 100 4.2 6.1 5.7 4.8 87.7 84.8 -0.3 1.4 3.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 14 86 100 6.4 8.2 6.9 4.7 86.3 83.5 1.7 3.6 5.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------