***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.12.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.12.2013.-12.01.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 14 86 100 9999.0 6.9 5.2 2.8 86.6 83.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 12 88 100 5.6 6.6 5.0 2.8 84.8 82.1 2.4 3.6 4.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 12 88 100 7.3 8.5 5.3 2.7 85.7 82.5 3.8 5.2 6.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 14 86 100 2.3 3.2 3.1 2.6 83.9 80.3 -0.6 0.6 1.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 13 87 100 6.8 7.8 3.8 2.6 84.8 81.0 3.4 4.7 6.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 12 88 100 6.2 7.7 3.7 2.9 89.0 83.6 3.0 4.3 5.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 12 88 100 5.3 6.4 4.8 2.8 85.1 82.2 2.0 3.3 4.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 13 87 100 0.6 1.6 3.8 2.7 88.3 83.3 -1.7 -0.8 0.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 15 85 100 7.7 9.1 4.7 2.7 86.1 82.0 4.1 5.5 6.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 14 86 100 6.7 8.2 4.4 2.8 87.7 83.0 3.3 4.7 5.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 13 87 100 7.1 8.3 3.8 2.6 85.6 81.6 3.5 4.9 6.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 12 88 100 7.2 8.6 3.8 2.6 86.9 82.5 3.8 5.2 6.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 12 88 100 6.9 8.4 3.8 2.7 87.8 83.3 3.4 4.8 6.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 13 87 100 7.7 9.3 5.4 3.0 87.6 84.0 4.2 5.6 6.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 18 82 100 5.6 6.6 3.5 2.5 82.7 79.3 2.4 3.7 5.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 13 87 100 7.5 8.9 3.7 2.6 86.5 82.2 3.9 5.4 6.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 11 89 100 5.1 6.1 4.8 2.8 84.4 81.5 1.9 3.2 4.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 15 85 100 4.5 5.9 4.5 2.9 89.0 84.0 1.8 2.8 3.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 12 88 100 6.2 7.3 5.1 2.8 84.7 82.0 2.8 4.2 5.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 13 87 100 3.6 5.3 3.2 2.9 89.8 84.1 0.4 1.7 2.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 14 86 100 7.2 8.4 5.0 2.7 85.9 82.2 3.8 5.1 6.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 12 88 100 5.9 6.7 5.0 2.7 83.4 80.7 2.5 3.8 5.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 12 88 100 6.0 7.1 5.3 2.7 84.9 82.1 2.7 4.0 5.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 14 86 100 8.1 9.7 5.2 2.8 87.6 83.6 4.3 5.8 7.2 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 12 88 100 5.7 6.9 4.0 2.7 86.6 83.1 2.6 3.8 5.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 12 88 100 6.1 7.3 3.4 2.5 87.0 82.5 3.1 4.2 5.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 13 87 100 7.1 8.5 4.6 2.7 86.9 83.4 3.5 4.9 6.2 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 15 85 100 6.7 7.7 3.5 2.6 83.6 80.0 3.4 4.7 6.0 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 15 85 100 4.0 5.7 4.0 3.0 90.0 84.8 1.0 2.2 3.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 12 88 100 5.6 6.7 5.1 2.8 85.2 82.4 2.3 3.6 4.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------