***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.12.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.12.2013.-22.12.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 74 26 0 100 9999.0 4.5 4.4 33.1 24.7 20.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 75 25 0 100 3.1 4.1 5.0 43.2 32.8 25.8 4.1 6.6 9.7 30 Becej 27400G00 78 22 0 100 4.0 3.6 4.5 32.8 22.8 19.6 5.5 9.5 14.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 86 14 0 100 4.3 3.7 4.0 26.0 17.8 16.0 6.5 10.2 14.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 86 14 0 100 4.0 3.0 4.1 25.6 15.8 15.0 6.4 10.7 16.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 85 15 0 100 3.4 2.5 3.1 19.9 16.5 14.3 5.4 9.1 13.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 76 24 0 100 3.4 4.5 4.8 43.3 33.1 25.5 4.5 7.1 10.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 81 19 0 100 6.0 5.3 4.9 30.1 20.6 18.2 8.5 13.6 20.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 88 12 0 100 3.3 2.4 4.4 27.9 14.9 15.2 5.2 8.5 12.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 85 15 0 100 3.4 2.4 4.7 28.5 17.0 16.4 5.5 9.7 15.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 84 16 0 100 3.0 2.3 4.1 26.2 18.0 16.1 4.7 8.3 13.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 81 19 0 100 2.9 2.3 4.1 27.5 20.4 17.3 4.3 7.9 12.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 86 14 0 100 4.6 3.8 3.6 22.5 16.9 14.9 7.1 11.1 16.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 75 25 0 100 5.3 4.8 5.8 35.6 23.4 21.3 7.0 11.7 17.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 85 15 0 100 2.7 2.7 3.4 23.4 22.7 17.9 4.4 7.9 12.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 86 14 0 100 4.1 3.2 3.6 23.3 16.6 14.9 6.3 9.9 14.4 30 Nis 06700G01 74 26 0 100 3.5 6.0 5.8 55.7 42.7 31.2 4.4 7.4 11.0 30 Palic 37000G16 82 18 0 100 3.0 1.9 5.2 30.0 17.2 17.1 4.6 8.7 14.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 76 24 0 100 2.5 3.0 5.0 40.8 30.2 24.5 3.4 6.2 10.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 79 21 0 100 4.3 3.8 6.9 35.6 22.1 20.2 6.2 11.0 17.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 84 16 0 100 3.6 2.8 4.4 29.1 17.1 16.3 5.6 9.4 14.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 74 26 0 100 2.5 4.4 6.5 56.7 41.8 31.5 3.3 5.8 9.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 74 26 0 100 2.9 2.7 5.1 37.2 25.3 22.2 3.7 6.5 10.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 83 17 0 100 3.1 2.3 5.0 30.8 18.5 17.8 5.0 9.5 15.7 28 Valjevo 28500G11 81 19 0 100 3.1 2.5 4.3 27.6 20.2 17.0 4.6 8.6 14.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 77 23 0 100 3.8 2.6 3.6 22.9 17.8 15.6 5.1 8.9 13.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 78 22 0 100 3.0 2.4 4.3 30.6 22.2 18.7 4.2 7.9 13.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 84 16 0 100 3.6 3.3 3.6 24.1 19.8 16.8 5.3 8.3 12.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 81 19 0 100 6.1 4.2 5.8 31.9 17.9 17.9 8.8 15.4 24.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 73 27 0 100 3.5 3.8 4.7 38.6 28.6 23.3 4.4 7.0 10.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------