***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.12.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.01.2014.-12.01.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 9999.0 5.0 6.7 82.7 55.7 43.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 65 35 0 100 1.9 5.1 6.8 86.3 57.7 42.2 2.2 4.0 6.5 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 2.5 6.4 7.3 91.6 59.7 46.0 2.5 4.7 7.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 65 35 0 100 2.5 7.2 8.0 99.1 63.4 47.9 2.8 5.0 7.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 3.2 8.5 8.1 95.3 61.6 46.6 3.4 6.1 9.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 2.6 7.2 7.9 94.9 61.0 45.9 2.5 5.0 8.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 63 37 0 100 1.8 4.6 6.6 83.6 56.1 41.4 1.9 3.7 6.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 3.6 10.0 9.2 98.2 63.2 47.9 3.7 6.7 10.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 2.4 6.3 8.4 92.9 60.3 46.0 2.3 4.4 7.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 2.6 7.9 9.2 95.9 61.9 47.1 2.4 5.1 9.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 63 37 0 100 2.2 6.9 7.7 94.0 61.6 46.4 2.3 4.6 8.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 62 38 0 100 2.6 8.0 8.0 97.3 63.0 47.8 2.8 5.2 8.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 64 36 0 100 2.4 7.7 8.0 96.2 61.7 46.5 2.6 5.2 8.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 3.6 8.7 9.0 92.8 59.7 46.0 3.7 6.5 10.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 62 38 0 100 2.0 6.7 7.9 101.7 65.4 48.5 2.1 4.0 6.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 65 35 0 100 1.8 6.4 7.6 95.9 62.0 46.6 1.9 4.1 7.4 30 Nis 06700G01 63 37 0 100 2.2 5.3 6.4 82.8 56.2 40.2 2.4 4.3 7.0 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 2.7 7.3 10.3 99.3 63.1 48.3 2.5 4.8 7.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 62 38 0 100 2.0 5.4 6.9 88.3 58.5 43.2 2.1 4.0 6.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 3.2 10.3 12.5 104.1 65.2 48.9 3.0 6.1 10.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 2.5 6.3 7.5 89.5 58.6 46.0 2.3 4.7 8.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 64 36 0 100 2.3 5.4 6.8 84.0 57.2 41.4 2.5 4.4 6.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 2.4 5.8 7.3 89.4 58.7 44.6 2.5 4.5 7.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 3.6 8.0 8.9 95.8 61.5 47.4 3.6 5.9 8.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 2.7 5.9 7.4 84.7 56.5 43.9 2.6 4.9 7.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 2.4 7.4 8.5 101.6 64.4 48.0 2.3 4.6 7.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 2.0 4.4 6.9 80.2 54.1 42.4 2.1 3.9 6.4 29 Vrsac 39200G15 63 37 0 100 1.7 5.9 8.0 103.0 65.1 48.4 1.8 3.6 6.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 4.0 11.0 11.1 100.2 63.5 48.6 3.9 7.2 11.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 64 36 0 100 1.7 4.8 6.9 87.1 58.0 43.3 1.9 3.7 6.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------