***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.12.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.12.2013.-12.01.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 72 28 0 100 9999.0 19.4 26.5 58.9 26.4 27.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 70 30 0 100 21.0 23.5 26.9 64.9 31.4 31.6 24.2 32.5 41.8 30 Becej 27400G00 71 29 0 100 30.0 31.2 27.5 61.3 27.5 29.0 34.3 44.2 55.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 71 29 0 100 28.2 27.7 28.9 60.4 24.6 27.1 32.5 42.5 53.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 67 33 0 100 33.5 32.1 29.1 58.6 24.0 26.8 37.1 46.5 56.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 79 21 0 100 24.8 23.0 27.6 56.0 19.6 23.6 30.3 39.4 49.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 73 27 0 100 20.8 23.4 26.4 64.0 30.2 30.5 24.7 34.2 44.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 68 32 0 100 42.0 40.8 31.5 60.5 24.3 27.2 46.3 57.0 68.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 67 33 0 100 25.2 23.6 30.3 59.8 23.3 26.7 27.9 35.4 43.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 64 36 0 100 32.6 30.6 31.9 60.3 23.5 26.9 35.3 43.6 52.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 32.5 30.6 28.0 58.7 24.5 27.0 34.6 42.4 50.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 70 30 0 100 28.9 27.6 27.6 58.7 23.4 26.2 32.8 42.1 52.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 75 25 0 100 29.6 27.2 27.5 56.1 20.2 24.0 34.6 44.4 55.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 65 35 0 100 39.9 38.8 33.2 62.2 25.6 28.2 43.4 53.9 65.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 70 30 0 100 24.2 25.1 28.3 61.4 28.0 28.5 28.3 39.5 52.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 68 32 0 100 26.0 23.2 26.8 57.2 21.4 25.0 29.3 38.5 48.8 30 Nis 06700G01 65 35 0 100 22.3 25.8 27.6 70.2 34.7 34.2 24.9 33.7 43.6 30 Palic 37000G16 64 36 0 100 29.2 27.3 35.0 61.1 23.3 26.8 31.7 39.4 47.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 70 30 0 100 22.9 25.1 27.2 64.2 30.5 31.2 26.3 35.0 44.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 66 34 0 100 32.9 31.8 41.6 63.4 25.6 28.4 36.6 47.8 60.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 69 31 0 100 27.9 26.5 28.4 59.1 23.5 26.4 31.4 40.3 49.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 22.9 25.6 29.6 71.3 35.1 35.1 24.4 32.7 42.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 71 29 0 100 22.3 23.3 28.1 62.5 27.7 29.4 25.5 33.2 41.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 68 32 0 100 34.4 33.3 31.7 60.8 24.1 27.1 37.7 46.4 55.3 28 Valjevo 28500G11 75 25 0 100 24.3 23.3 28.6 56.2 23.2 25.5 29.7 41.0 54.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 70 30 0 100 23.7 19.9 27.5 57.4 19.6 24.2 27.6 37.2 48.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 74 26 0 100 21.7 21.0 27.7 56.9 23.9 25.9 26.6 37.6 50.4 29 Vrsac 39200G15 68 32 0 100 25.3 25.0 28.3 61.6 26.2 28.0 28.6 37.7 47.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 66 34 0 100 49.5 47.7 37.8 62.0 24.3 27.4 53.9 65.6 78.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 73 27 0 100 20.2 22.8 26.7 63.0 30.1 30.5 24.1 33.0 43.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------