***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.12.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.12.2019.-22.12.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 0 100 100 1.1 6.5 5.3 7.0 98.6 97.8 -3.6 -1.9 -0.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 0 100 100 1.0 5.2 4.3 6.3 96.8 95.5 -3.6 -1.9 -0.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 0 100 100 2.8 7.3 4.9 6.5 97.9 96.7 -1.6 -0.1 1.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 0 100 100 -2.1 2.8 2.5 6.5 97.6 97.1 -7.0 -5.2 -3.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 0 100 100 0.4 4.5 3.8 6.8 97.3 96.6 -3.9 -2.3 -0.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 0 100 100 -0.3 2.2 0.3 5.5 93.7 93.4 -4.3 -2.8 -1.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 0 100 100 0.9 5.5 4.8 6.8 97.7 96.7 -3.7 -2.0 -0.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 0 100 100 -4.2 -0.3 1.6 6.5 96.3 95.8 -8.8 -7.1 -5.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 0 100 100 1.3 4.2 1.9 4.9 93.7 92.6 -3.2 -1.6 0.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 0 100 100 0.4 3.3 1.5 5.9 94.8 93.9 -3.7 -2.2 -0.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 0 100 100 0.6 3.7 2.3 5.7 94.9 94.1 -3.6 -2.1 -0.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 0 100 100 0.1 4.0 2.4 6.5 96.6 96.0 -4.4 -2.8 -1.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 0 100 100 0.3 2.3 0.9 5.0 91.9 91.2 -3.6 -2.2 -0.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 0 100 100 1.5 4.9 2.8 6.2 95.6 94.2 -3.0 -1.4 0.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 0 100 100 0.2 2.3 1.8 4.0 91.1 90.4 -4.2 -2.6 -1.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 0 100 100 1.0 3.5 1.5 5.4 94.3 93.7 -2.8 -1.4 -0.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 0 100 100 0.6 5.0 4.7 6.9 97.7 96.6 -3.7 -2.2 -0.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 0 100 100 -1.2 2.6 1.8 6.6 95.7 94.7 -6.1 -4.3 -2.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 0 100 100 1.1 5.0 3.9 5.9 96.2 94.7 -3.7 -2.0 -0.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 0 100 100 -2.7 2.7 1.6 7.4 96.9 96.3 -8.7 -6.5 -4.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 0 100 100 1.3 5.7 4.1 6.1 97.0 95.9 -3.6 -1.9 -0.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 0 100 100 0.9 5.5 5.0 6.9 97.7 96.4 -3.8 -2.1 -0.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 0 100 100 0.6 4.0 3.4 5.4 95.6 94.2 -3.8 -2.2 -0.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 0 100 100 0.1 3.3 2.6 5.8 95.3 93.8 -4.0 -2.5 -1.1 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 0 100 100 0.6 5.1 4.6 6.8 98.3 97.6 -3.5 -2.0 -0.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 0 100 100 0.1 3.3 2.0 6.3 95.9 95.5 -3.8 -2.4 -1.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 0 100 100 1.9 7.8 5.1 7.1 98.3 97.5 -3.3 -1.4 0.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 0 100 100 -0.5 2.4 1.9 5.4 93.8 93.1 -5.0 -3.4 -1.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 0 100 100 -1.1 2.9 1.1 6.8 95.9 94.9 -6.2 -4.4 -2.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 0 100 100 1.2 5.6 4.8 6.6 97.6 96.5 -3.2 -1.6 -0.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------