***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.12.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.12.2019.-12.01.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 12 88 100 -0.5 1.3 1.8 3.8 91.1 86.5 -3.4 -2.2 -1.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 14 86 100 -0.8 0.8 1.4 3.5 89.2 85.0 -3.8 -2.6 -1.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 11 89 100 1.1 2.7 1.7 3.6 90.9 86.3 -1.7 -0.6 0.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 15 85 100 -3.9 -2.4 -1.0 3.5 89.8 84.2 -6.7 -5.6 -4.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 13 87 100 -1.2 0.4 -0.1 3.8 91.0 85.7 -4.0 -2.9 -1.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 16 84 100 -2.0 -0.4 -2.6 3.4 89.5 84.0 -5.0 -3.8 -2.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 13 87 100 -0.7 1.0 1.6 3.7 90.1 85.9 -3.7 -2.5 -1.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 14 86 100 -5.7 -4.2 -1.9 3.7 90.4 85.1 -8.3 -7.2 -6.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 19 81 100 -0.5 1.1 -0.3 3.3 88.7 83.3 -3.3 -2.1 -1.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 14 86 100 -1.2 0.4 -1.4 3.6 89.9 84.7 -3.9 -2.8 -1.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 15 85 100 -1.2 0.4 -0.9 3.6 89.7 84.5 -4.2 -3.0 -1.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 15 85 100 -1.9 -0.1 -1.3 3.8 90.3 84.9 -5.0 -3.7 -2.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 15 85 100 -1.3 0.3 -1.9 3.3 88.6 83.1 -4.5 -3.2 -2.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 11 89 100 -0.3 1.0 -0.1 3.6 89.7 85.4 -2.9 -1.9 -1.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 17 83 100 -1.4 -0.3 -0.4 2.8 85.8 80.6 -4.2 -3.0 -2.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 17 83 100 -0.6 0.8 -1.5 3.5 89.0 83.6 -3.3 -2.2 -1.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 14 86 100 -1.1 0.4 1.6 3.6 89.3 85.1 -4.0 -2.8 -1.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 13 87 100 -3.1 -1.3 -1.7 3.8 90.5 86.0 -6.1 -4.9 -3.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 13 87 100 -0.7 0.8 1.3 3.4 89.0 84.7 -3.7 -2.5 -1.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 11 89 100 -5.0 -2.6 -2.6 3.8 91.4 86.6 -9.0 -7.4 -6.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 16 84 100 -0.6 1.1 1.0 3.6 90.3 85.0 -3.6 -2.4 -1.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 11 89 100 -1.1 0.4 1.6 3.6 89.6 85.8 -4.0 -2.9 -1.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 11 89 100 -1.0 0.3 1.1 3.3 88.9 84.5 -3.8 -2.7 -1.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 13 87 100 -1.2 0.2 -0.4 3.5 89.7 85.0 -3.8 -2.8 -1.8 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 14 86 100 -0.9 0.6 0.8 3.7 90.8 85.8 -3.5 -2.5 -1.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 10 90 100 -1.3 0.4 -1.6 3.7 90.4 85.2 -4.5 -3.3 -2.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 13 87 100 0.1 2.2 1.5 3.8 90.8 86.2 -3.3 -1.9 -0.7 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 18 82 100 -2.3 -1.1 -1.1 3.2 87.2 81.7 -5.0 -3.9 -2.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 11 89 100 -3.1 -1.5 -2.1 3.8 90.8 86.3 -5.9 -4.8 -3.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 12 88 100 -0.4 1.3 1.6 3.6 90.3 86.0 -3.5 -2.3 -1.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------