***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.12.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.12.2019.-05.01.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 4.3 5.3 4.7 1.5 64.0 61.0 1.5 3.6 5.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 3.9 4.8 4.8 1.5 63.6 60.8 1.3 3.3 5.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 5.8 6.6 5.0 1.4 62.4 59.4 2.7 5.0 7.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 1.4 2.0 2.0 1.2 61.3 58.6 -1.7 0.5 2.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 5.5 5.9 3.0 1.1 60.6 57.9 2.5 4.7 6.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 5.2 5.0 2.1 0.7 56.3 55.0 2.3 4.3 6.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 3.6 4.6 4.8 1.5 64.1 61.3 1.1 3.0 4.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 -0.4 -0.5 2.6 0.7 57.0 55.3 -2.7 -1.1 0.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 6.3 6.6 3.8 1.0 59.5 57.0 3.2 5.4 7.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 5.4 5.5 3.2 0.8 57.7 55.7 2.6 4.6 6.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 5.6 5.9 3.0 1.0 59.7 57.3 2.6 4.8 6.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 6.0 6.3 2.9 0.9 58.6 56.8 3.0 5.2 7.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 5.5 5.8 2.5 1.0 59.5 57.7 2.6 4.7 6.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 6.4 6.6 4.4 1.0 58.7 56.2 3.0 5.4 7.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 4.7 5.0 2.6 0.9 59.2 57.6 1.9 3.9 5.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 6.1 6.5 2.6 1.0 59.7 57.4 3.1 5.3 7.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 3.4 4.2 4.8 1.4 62.8 60.1 1.0 2.9 4.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 3.6 3.6 3.3 0.8 57.5 55.3 1.2 2.9 4.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 4.6 5.5 4.9 1.4 62.9 60.1 1.7 3.9 5.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 2.3 2.4 1.8 0.8 57.4 55.4 -0.7 1.5 3.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 5.8 6.4 4.4 1.2 60.9 58.1 2.8 5.0 7.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 4.3 5.0 4.9 1.3 62.2 59.7 1.6 3.6 5.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 4.6 5.2 5.1 1.3 61.2 58.5 1.8 3.8 5.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 6.7 6.9 4.2 1.0 58.7 56.1 3.4 5.7 8.0 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 4.1 4.9 3.3 1.3 62.8 59.9 1.6 3.5 5.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 36 64 100 6.2 5.4 2.6 1.2 62.0 60.1 2.5 4.3 5.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 5.6 6.6 4.3 1.5 63.7 60.7 2.7 4.9 6.9 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 5.9 6.2 2.2 1.0 59.2 57.1 2.7 5.0 7.2 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 2.9 2.9 2.8 0.8 57.4 55.2 0.0 2.1 4.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 3.9 4.9 4.8 1.6 64.0 61.1 1.2 3.2 5.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------