***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.12.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.12.2019.-12.01.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 8 92 100 6.2 8.1 7.5 3.9 91.4 87.0 2.7 4.0 5.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 12 88 100 5.6 7.2 7.3 3.7 89.3 85.0 2.4 3.6 4.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 13 87 100 7.3 9.1 7.8 3.8 89.7 85.0 3.8 5.2 6.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 11 89 100 2.4 4.0 4.7 3.7 90.4 85.2 -0.6 0.6 1.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 12 88 100 6.8 8.8 6.0 3.8 90.9 85.8 3.4 4.7 6.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 17 83 100 6.1 8.0 5.2 3.6 90.7 84.9 3.0 4.3 5.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 10 90 100 5.4 7.2 7.3 3.8 90.4 86.3 2.0 3.3 4.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 19 81 100 0.5 1.6 5.4 3.3 88.0 83.1 -1.7 -0.8 0.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 18 82 100 7.6 9.5 6.6 3.5 88.9 83.5 4.1 5.5 6.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 19 81 100 6.6 8.4 6.1 3.5 88.8 83.8 3.3 4.7 5.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 13 87 100 7.1 9.1 6.3 3.7 90.5 85.4 3.5 4.9 6.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 18 82 100 7.1 8.9 5.6 3.4 88.7 83.7 3.8 5.2 6.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 16 84 100 6.8 8.8 5.8 3.6 90.1 85.1 3.4 4.8 6.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 18 82 100 7.6 9.3 7.5 3.7 88.1 83.2 4.2 5.6 6.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 17 83 100 5.7 6.8 5.1 2.9 84.6 79.9 2.4 3.7 5.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 13 87 100 7.5 9.6 5.7 3.7 90.5 85.4 3.9 5.4 6.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 11 89 100 5.1 6.8 7.2 3.7 89.8 85.5 1.9 3.2 4.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 17 83 100 4.4 5.9 6.2 3.6 88.9 84.0 1.8 2.8 3.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 13 87 100 6.2 7.8 7.4 3.7 88.4 84.0 2.8 4.2 5.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 14 86 100 3.6 5.2 4.7 3.3 89.0 84.5 0.4 1.7 2.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 11 89 100 7.2 9.0 7.3 3.6 89.7 84.7 3.8 5.1 6.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 11 89 100 5.9 7.5 7.3 3.6 88.9 84.5 2.5 3.8 5.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 17 83 100 5.9 7.4 7.6 3.5 87.4 82.7 2.7 4.0 5.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 18 82 100 7.9 9.8 7.2 3.6 88.2 83.1 4.3 5.8 7.2 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 8 92 100 5.8 7.7 6.4 3.9 91.9 87.3 2.6 3.8 5.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 16 84 100 6.0 7.6 5.0 3.3 89.8 85.2 3.1 4.2 5.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 7 93 100 7.2 9.4 7.1 4.0 92.0 87.6 3.5 4.9 6.2 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 15 85 100 6.7 8.2 5.0 3.3 87.1 82.0 3.4 4.7 6.0 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 18 82 100 3.9 5.4 5.6 3.4 88.6 83.8 1.0 2.2 3.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 12 88 100 5.6 7.4 7.4 3.8 89.9 85.6 2.3 3.6 4.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------