***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.12.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.12.2019.-22.12.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 83 17 0 100 3.2 2.5 2.8 23.2 18.1 15.9 4.8 8.2 12.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 75 25 0 100 3.1 3.3 3.3 30.9 27.0 22.4 4.1 6.6 9.7 30 Becej 27400G00 89 11 0 100 3.2 2.5 2.5 20.4 16.3 14.3 5.5 9.5 14.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 85 15 0 100 4.4 3.6 3.4 22.5 17.2 15.8 6.5 10.2 14.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 91 9 0 100 3.7 2.2 2.4 16.4 11.5 11.2 6.4 10.7 16.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 92 8 0 100 3.0 1.5 2.0 13.7 9.6 9.6 5.4 9.1 13.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 70 30 0 100 3.7 4.0 3.4 32.6 29.2 23.6 4.5 7.1 10.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 82 18 0 100 5.9 4.6 4.1 25.8 18.0 16.5 8.5 13.6 20.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 91 9 0 100 3.1 1.9 2.2 15.7 11.2 10.9 5.2 8.5 12.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 88 12 0 100 3.1 1.6 2.8 17.5 11.8 11.8 5.5 9.7 15.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 91 9 0 100 2.5 1.3 2.5 15.9 11.0 11.0 4.7 8.3 13.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 84 16 0 100 2.7 1.5 3.2 21.1 15.0 14.1 4.3 7.9 12.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 92 8 0 100 4.2 2.1 2.1 12.9 8.7 8.9 7.1 11.1 16.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 87 13 0 100 4.3 2.9 3.1 19.5 14.5 13.5 7.0 11.7 17.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 75 25 0 100 3.3 3.4 3.8 27.1 26.7 22.6 4.4 7.9 12.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 86 14 0 100 4.1 2.1 2.3 14.8 10.2 10.1 6.3 9.9 14.4 30 Nis 06700G01 67 33 0 100 3.9 4.7 4.0 39.5 34.7 27.1 4.4 7.4 11.0 30 Palic 37000G16 79 21 0 100 3.2 1.9 4.2 25.0 17.0 16.2 4.6 8.7 14.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 80 20 0 100 2.3 2.1 3.0 27.2 23.6 19.6 3.4 6.2 10.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 71 29 0 100 5.0 5.9 8.6 46.0 32.0 25.9 6.2 11.0 17.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 89 11 0 100 3.2 2.2 2.6 18.8 13.8 12.7 5.6 9.4 14.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 74 26 0 100 2.5 3.4 4.1 38.4 33.9 25.8 3.3 5.8 9.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 85 15 0 100 2.4 1.9 2.7 21.7 17.9 15.7 3.7 6.5 10.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 88 12 0 100 2.7 1.5 2.9 19.4 14.1 13.2 5.0 9.5 15.7 28 Valjevo 28500G11 83 17 0 100 3.0 1.7 3.0 21.2 15.6 14.1 4.6 8.6 14.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 84 16 0 100 3.3 2.1 3.0 20.9 15.0 14.1 5.1 8.9 13.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 81 19 0 100 2.8 1.7 2.8 22.4 17.4 15.5 4.2 7.9 13.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 83 17 0 100 3.7 3.0 3.1 21.3 18.1 16.5 5.3 8.3 12.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 77 23 0 100 6.5 6.1 6.2 35.6 24.5 21.1 8.8 15.4 24.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 77 23 0 100 3.3 3.1 2.9 26.5 23.2 19.5 4.4 7.0 10.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------