***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.12.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.12.2019.-29.12.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 10.3 10.7 11.8 92.0 60.4 48.7 3.9 7.5 12.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 4.8 10.7 10.1 88.1 59.0 47.9 4.8 8.4 13.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 13.2 14.3 12.0 95.7 61.2 49.8 6.2 10.6 16.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 6.3 17.0 16.1 123.3 70.8 57.8 6.0 9.9 14.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 6.5 15.5 14.5 110.0 66.2 56.0 6.1 10.2 15.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 10.8 15.9 15.3 126.4 71.5 59.6 4.5 8.3 13.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 4.2 10.2 9.7 85.7 58.1 46.7 3.9 7.7 13.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 39 61 100 20.4 19.9 15.6 116.4 68.3 58.8 8.2 12.9 18.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 8.5 9.7 13.9 103.0 63.6 53.6 3.4 6.4 10.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 10.0 12.7 15.0 112.9 67.2 57.9 4.6 8.0 12.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 11.9 15.7 14.7 114.7 67.8 58.0 4.8 9.0 14.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 11.7 15.1 14.5 115.4 68.0 57.9 5.4 9.2 14.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 10.9 15.7 15.6 119.9 69.8 59.0 4.6 8.6 14.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 14.8 17.2 15.1 102.8 63.9 54.2 6.9 11.8 18.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 11.6 18.3 15.7 125.1 71.3 56.6 3.5 8.0 15.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 10.1 14.1 15.2 121.2 70.1 59.1 4.1 7.7 12.5 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 4.3 9.0 9.1 80.7 55.9 45.4 4.1 7.6 12.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 9.0 10.6 14.6 104.4 64.1 54.6 4.0 7.1 11.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 4.6 11.4 10.8 92.4 60.5 49.8 4.4 8.1 13.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 12.1 15.5 19.3 113.2 67.3 57.7 5.3 9.5 14.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 10.6 11.3 13.1 97.1 61.2 50.3 5.0 8.4 12.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 5.2 10.7 10.1 86.3 58.1 48.3 4.9 8.5 13.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 9.5 10.3 11.8 95.5 61.4 51.5 3.9 7.2 11.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 11.3 12.7 13.9 99.5 62.4 52.5 5.5 9.2 14.0 28 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 6.3 14.7 14.7 101.5 63.3 52.7 5.9 10.2 15.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 9.5 13.9 16.6 124.9 71.1 57.6 3.9 7.2 11.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 5.2 12.2 12.7 93.4 60.4 49.0 4.7 8.8 14.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 38 62 100 16.8 18.4 16.0 131.3 73.1 59.8 4.4 8.6 14.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 16.8 19.8 15.9 107.2 65.2 55.7 8.3 13.6 20.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 4.6 11.2 10.7 92.4 60.7 49.0 4.4 8.0 13.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------