***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.12.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.12.2019.-05.01.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 3.4 6.7 7.6 70.5 51.8 40.6 3.4 6.3 10.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 69 31 0 100 2.8 7.8 8.0 81.5 57.2 40.7 3.2 6.1 10.2 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 4.6 9.1 8.0 74.6 53.6 41.9 4.3 8.1 13.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 12.2 11.4 9.2 80.1 56.1 45.3 5.8 9.7 14.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 11.1 10.3 9.2 80.4 55.3 45.3 5.5 9.0 13.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 9.3 9.8 9.2 94.4 60.8 49.6 4.4 7.4 11.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 64 36 0 100 3.0 8.3 7.6 80.8 57.0 40.4 3.3 6.5 11.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 14.4 14.8 10.5 88.4 58.5 47.9 7.8 12.1 17.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 9.2 8.3 9.5 79.0 54.6 45.1 4.5 7.3 11.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 10.5 10.0 10.4 84.6 56.5 46.5 4.9 8.4 12.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 10.2 10.0 9.3 85.3 57.2 46.1 5.4 8.5 12.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 10.4 10.9 9.4 90.0 59.5 48.4 4.7 8.3 13.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 10.6 11.3 9.6 91.9 60.1 48.3 5.2 8.6 13.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 5.9 12.9 11.7 88.4 58.7 47.0 5.4 9.9 15.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 3.8 8.5 8.4 74.8 55.9 42.9 3.3 6.8 12.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 9.4 9.6 9.1 88.6 58.9 47.3 4.5 7.6 11.7 30 Nis 06700G01 70 30 0 100 2.6 8.4 8.1 86.3 58.8 40.5 3.1 6.2 10.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 9.7 8.7 10.7 82.9 55.9 45.9 4.0 7.3 11.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 64 36 0 100 3.6 8.7 8.4 82.9 57.6 41.9 4.0 7.0 11.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 5.7 11.0 13.1 84.4 57.2 47.0 5.3 9.0 13.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 9.9 8.1 8.6 74.1 52.6 42.7 4.3 7.6 11.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 67 33 0 100 3.0 8.9 9.3 93.3 61.5 42.7 3.3 6.2 10.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 3.6 7.9 9.2 85.5 58.2 44.1 3.4 6.2 9.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 10.9 10.0 10.1 82.2 56.1 45.7 4.4 8.2 13.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 4.8 8.7 8.8 73.1 52.5 42.7 4.3 8.1 13.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 9.5 9.1 8.5 82.5 56.7 46.7 4.4 7.5 11.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 3.8 7.4 8.1 72.3 52.4 42.0 3.4 6.8 11.7 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 9.9 9.4 8.9 82.8 57.5 45.8 4.2 7.5 12.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 15.4 14.3 11.5 83.7 56.5 46.6 6.6 11.8 18.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 65 35 0 100 3.4 8.2 7.8 78.9 56.2 41.2 3.8 6.8 10.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------