***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.12.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.01.2020.-12.01.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 4.3 5.5 10.7 111.6 67.7 53.0 1.9 3.3 5.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 5.3 7.0 9.4 114.3 68.4 54.5 2.2 4.0 6.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 6.4 8.3 10.8 113.3 68.2 52.3 2.5 4.7 7.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 6.4 8.7 12.8 120.1 70.1 52.3 2.8 5.0 7.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 7.9 10.8 12.9 119.7 69.8 52.2 3.4 6.1 9.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 6.8 9.0 11.7 112.1 67.7 55.0 2.5 5.0 8.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 5.0 6.7 9.0 111.1 67.3 53.8 1.9 3.7 6.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 8.8 12.3 14.2 121.3 70.3 54.4 3.7 6.7 10.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 6.1 8.2 13.1 116.5 68.8 51.6 2.3 4.4 7.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 7.2 10.1 13.9 117.8 69.2 53.1 2.4 5.1 9.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 6.3 9.0 12.5 119.0 69.6 53.1 2.3 4.6 8.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 7.0 10.0 12.5 119.5 69.9 54.4 2.8 5.2 8.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 7.1 9.5 12.2 112.9 68.0 54.7 2.6 5.2 8.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 3.9 11.4 14.2 117.9 69.5 53.3 3.7 6.5 10.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 2.1 7.6 12.1 117.8 69.8 50.1 2.1 4.0 6.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 5.8 8.1 12.0 115.8 68.8 53.7 1.9 4.1 7.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 5.7 7.7 9.3 117.5 69.3 54.7 2.4 4.3 7.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 6.5 8.6 14.3 115.4 68.4 52.5 2.5 4.8 7.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 5.4 7.4 10.1 116.3 69.0 54.8 2.1 4.0 6.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 3.5 12.5 19.0 124.6 71.3 54.6 3.0 6.1 10.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 2.6 8.7 11.9 114.2 68.2 51.3 2.3 4.7 8.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 5.5 7.8 10.3 121.8 70.7 55.9 2.5 4.4 6.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 2.6 8.0 11.3 118.8 69.8 54.2 2.5 4.5 7.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 7.5 9.4 13.0 114.0 68.2 51.8 3.6 5.9 8.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 6.5 8.5 12.5 115.7 68.7 53.4 2.6 4.9 7.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 6.2 8.8 12.4 117.0 69.3 55.3 2.3 4.6 7.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 5.0 6.7 11.4 112.1 67.8 54.2 2.1 3.9 6.4 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 5.0 6.7 11.8 115.5 68.9 51.6 1.8 3.6 6.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 9.5 12.8 15.5 116.7 68.9 53.4 3.9 7.2 11.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 5.0 6.6 9.7 112.3 67.9 53.9 1.9 3.7 6.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------