***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.12.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.12.2019.-12.01.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 21.5 24.6 33.0 72.7 35.7 34.9 23.1 32.6 43.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 23.8 27.9 30.8 76.7 40.7 39.0 24.2 32.5 41.8 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 32.2 36.5 33.4 73.7 36.8 35.5 34.3 44.2 55.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 31.0 38.8 41.6 82.2 43.8 41.6 32.5 42.5 53.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 36.1 40.4 39.1 77.7 39.0 37.9 37.1 46.5 56.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 44.0 35.3 38.2 82.0 42.8 41.4 30.3 39.4 49.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 24.4 28.6 29.7 75.7 40.0 38.3 24.7 34.2 44.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 45.1 52.6 44.4 83.3 43.1 41.3 46.3 57.0 68.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 27.2 29.6 38.8 75.9 37.0 36.2 27.9 35.4 43.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 34.0 38.2 42.1 78.6 39.1 38.1 35.3 43.6 52.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 32.6 37.4 38.9 78.4 39.2 38.0 34.6 42.4 50.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 31.3 37.4 39.6 81.3 41.6 40.0 32.8 42.1 52.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 34.1 37.4 39.6 77.7 37.9 37.2 34.6 44.4 55.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 42.5 48.4 44.1 79.1 41.1 38.8 43.4 53.9 65.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 28.4 37.4 40.1 83.1 47.1 43.4 28.3 39.5 52.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 28.2 32.8 38.6 79.4 39.7 38.8 29.3 38.5 48.8 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 24.7 29.7 30.4 78.9 42.8 40.9 24.9 33.7 43.6 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 30.8 34.3 43.9 78.4 39.1 38.3 31.7 39.4 47.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 26.0 30.2 32.2 77.4 41.0 39.0 26.3 35.0 44.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 36.3 46.8 60.1 89.3 48.5 45.4 36.6 47.8 60.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 29.8 32.6 36.2 73.6 35.4 34.7 31.4 40.3 49.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 37.2 30.4 33.8 82.7 45.5 42.8 24.4 32.7 42.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 25.2 28.9 34.9 77.7 40.9 38.5 25.5 33.2 41.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 36.5 40.1 39.9 75.7 37.8 36.6 37.7 46.4 55.3 28 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 27.8 32.2 39.0 75.5 36.9 36.1 29.7 41.0 54.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 42.3 33.6 40.6 83.2 43.8 41.8 27.6 37.2 48.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 24.9 28.1 35.0 73.5 35.8 35.2 26.6 37.6 50.4 29 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 27.8 35.2 39.8 83.4 45.4 42.9 28.6 37.7 47.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 53.2 60.7 49.1 82.7 42.8 41.2 53.9 65.6 78.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 23.2 27.4 31.2 75.7 39.5 37.8 24.1 33.0 43.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------