***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.12.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.12.2012.-13.01.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 9999.0 4.1 3.5 0.6 59.8 58.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 38 62 100 5.0 4.7 3.5 0.9 63.8 62.1 2.3 3.6 4.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 35 65 100 6.7 6.6 4.2 1.1 67.0 64.3 3.8 5.2 6.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 1.0 0.8 1.2 0.2 52.5 52.2 -0.6 0.6 1.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 5.1 5.5 2.6 0.7 61.3 59.2 3.3 4.7 5.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 4.6 5.3 2.0 0.9 63.9 61.3 3.0 4.2 5.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 3.7 4.2 3.2 0.8 62.2 60.9 1.9 3.3 4.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 39 61 100 0.2 0.2 2.8 1.1 67.7 64.3 -1.6 -0.7 0.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 6.0 6.9 3.8 1.1 66.8 63.7 4.0 5.5 6.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 39 61 100 6.1 6.1 3.4 1.2 68.1 64.7 3.3 4.6 5.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 5.3 6.1 2.8 1.0 64.8 61.8 3.5 4.9 6.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 39 61 100 6.6 6.6 3.0 1.2 68.1 64.5 3.8 5.1 6.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 39 61 100 6.2 6.2 2.7 1.2 68.1 64.5 3.3 4.7 6.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 23 77 100 7.5 7.9 4.9 1.9 76.5 72.2 4.2 5.6 6.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 4.3 3.5 1.3 -0.1 47.7 48.4 2.3 3.7 5.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 5.8 6.6 2.5 1.0 64.7 61.7 3.9 5.3 6.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 29 71 100 4.8 4.6 3.7 1.2 69.1 66.3 1.8 3.1 4.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 35 65 100 4.1 4.1 3.5 1.3 70.2 66.5 1.7 2.8 3.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 33 67 100 5.7 5.5 4.0 1.2 67.3 64.8 2.8 4.2 5.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 2.1 2.7 1.6 0.9 64.5 61.8 0.4 1.6 2.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 5.6 6.4 4.0 1.1 66.2 63.2 3.7 5.1 6.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 28 72 100 5.5 5.7 4.3 1.6 73.5 69.8 2.5 3.8 5.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 28 72 100 5.6 5.8 4.7 1.6 72.9 69.2 2.6 4.0 5.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 28 72 100 7.7 8.0 4.6 1.6 73.9 69.7 4.3 5.8 7.2 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 4.2 4.3 2.2 0.5 57.4 56.3 2.6 3.8 4.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 36 64 100 5.6 5.7 2.5 1.2 70.1 66.4 3.0 4.2 5.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 5.3 5.5 2.8 0.5 58.3 57.3 3.4 4.8 6.2 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 5.2 4.9 1.5 0.1 52.2 51.8 3.3 4.7 6.0 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 37 63 100 3.5 3.5 2.8 1.2 68.6 65.3 1.0 2.2 3.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 4.1 4.5 3.5 0.8 61.8 60.5 2.3 3.6 4.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------