***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.12.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.12.2012.-23.12.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 9999.0 8.3 12.4 105.2 64.0 55.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 7.5 8.4 11.2 101.4 62.4 52.8 3.8 6.2 9.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 10.3 12.3 12.8 104.8 63.9 54.6 5.1 8.6 12.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 84 16 100 11.5 17.7 17.4 134.2 73.9 64.3 6.3 10.0 14.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 84 16 100 12.4 17.0 16.5 119.9 69.2 60.2 6.6 10.7 15.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 41 59 100 15.0 16.0 17.1 127.7 71.8 64.5 6.3 9.8 14.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 8.3 9.0 10.5 97.6 60.9 52.3 4.3 6.9 10.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 15.6 19.7 17.4 115.5 67.6 59.7 8.4 13.2 19.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 8.5 10.9 15.6 114.1 67.0 57.2 4.6 7.3 10.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 10.7 13.8 16.9 115.7 67.7 59.1 5.5 9.0 13.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 10.2 13.9 16.6 119.0 68.9 59.9 5.3 8.6 12.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 9.8 12.9 16.8 119.3 69.0 60.6 5.2 8.2 12.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 12.7 16.8 17.1 119.4 69.0 60.9 7.4 11.2 15.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 12.4 14.0 14.9 102.0 62.9 54.8 6.5 10.3 15.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 32 68 100 15.0 20.8 19.5 166.2 81.3 71.5 4.0 7.6 12.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 11.2 14.5 16.2 116.5 67.9 59.2 6.4 9.8 13.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 8.6 10.5 11.0 105.3 64.2 54.5 4.1 7.0 11.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 9.0 11.1 16.9 112.2 66.6 58.8 4.5 7.4 11.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 7.2 8.3 11.9 102.4 62.8 52.7 3.3 5.8 9.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 12.4 14.3 18.8 104.3 63.7 57.7 6.8 10.6 15.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 10.0 12.1 14.1 108.5 65.2 55.4 4.9 8.2 12.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 7.6 9.2 12.1 106.3 64.6 53.7 3.7 6.2 9.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 7.0 7.9 12.7 101.5 62.6 52.6 3.3 5.6 8.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 10.5 13.3 15.4 109.8 65.8 57.4 4.5 8.2 13.5 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 9.9 13.0 14.8 111.5 66.2 57.8 4.3 8.0 13.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 38 62 100 14.7 15.6 17.9 128.5 72.2 64.8 5.8 9.2 13.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 8.9 10.6 13.0 103.4 62.8 55.1 3.7 7.0 11.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 39 61 100 12.9 15.7 18.3 148.2 76.9 67.8 4.7 7.8 11.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 16.9 20.1 17.2 107.5 64.6 57.5 9.2 14.4 20.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 7.4 8.6 11.4 102.0 62.8 53.6 3.9 6.3 9.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------