***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.12.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.12.2012.-30.12.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 40 60 100 9999.0 17.8 12.6 118.0 68.8 60.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 39 61 100 14.4 17.6 14.5 144.9 76.5 66.4 4.7 8.3 13.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 40 60 100 17.1 17.9 13.0 125.4 71.1 61.3 6.0 10.2 15.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 11.2 11.5 11.8 94.0 59.8 52.0 4.7 8.6 13.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 11.8 11.7 11.7 92.6 58.3 50.4 5.7 9.4 14.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 4.6 8.4 11.7 82.2 53.0 45.4 4.2 7.7 12.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 34 66 100 15.8 18.5 14.5 142.5 75.9 65.8 4.0 7.9 13.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 14.5 16.6 14.4 104.1 63.3 54.2 7.1 11.7 17.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 8.1 8.2 12.1 96.8 59.8 51.2 3.2 6.1 9.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 9.2 9.9 13.4 100.3 61.5 52.4 4.0 7.1 11.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 5.2 10.2 10.9 86.7 55.4 47.0 4.8 8.7 13.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 10.4 10.4 12.0 93.7 58.9 50.0 4.4 7.9 12.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 4.5 9.3 11.9 88.7 55.9 47.7 4.1 7.7 12.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 14.1 21.6 15.6 131.2 73.0 61.2 6.6 11.4 17.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 10.5 12.0 12.6 98.2 62.5 54.6 3.2 7.3 13.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 4.0 7.6 10.6 81.9 52.9 45.2 3.5 6.8 11.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 35 65 100 13.9 17.6 14.9 154.0 78.3 67.0 4.0 7.4 12.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 8.7 10.9 15.7 112.7 66.3 56.3 3.9 6.9 10.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 37 63 100 15.7 18.9 14.5 144.3 76.3 66.2 4.6 8.5 13.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 35 65 100 16.6 18.1 22.9 135.1 73.8 64.5 5.1 9.0 14.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 10.0 11.4 12.1 104.0 63.1 54.3 4.5 7.9 12.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 32 68 100 14.9 18.9 15.8 159.7 79.5 68.9 4.6 8.1 12.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 36 64 100 13.3 15.3 14.5 139.7 75.3 64.6 3.9 7.2 11.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 10.4 14.2 14.3 119.9 69.0 58.3 4.4 8.1 13.0 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 13.1 16.4 13.4 110.8 66.4 58.8 6.2 10.6 16.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 8.9 9.2 13.1 97.5 60.7 52.9 3.3 6.4 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 39 61 100 16.2 15.9 13.6 119.0 69.2 60.8 4.6 8.7 14.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 4.7 10.0 11.2 86.6 56.5 48.8 4.1 8.0 13.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 14.4 21.2 18.9 126.4 71.2 61.2 6.5 11.4 18.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 39 61 100 15.1 17.6 14.0 138.5 74.9 65.0 4.7 8.4 13.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------