***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.12.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.12.2012.-06.01.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9999.0 10.7 13.2 123.0 70.6 58.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 35 65 100 12.2 13.5 14.2 134.7 74.0 60.7 2.9 5.9 10.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 11.7 16.1 12.9 120.1 69.5 56.8 4.5 8.5 14.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 12.8 14.7 11.5 102.7 64.5 52.4 6.3 10.3 15.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 6.4 15.0 12.2 111.3 66.7 53.4 6.1 9.9 14.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 10.0 11.0 11.2 96.9 62.3 51.7 4.7 7.9 12.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 36 64 100 13.4 15.6 14.4 138.6 75.0 61.5 3.4 6.8 11.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 15.8 19.9 13.6 115.0 68.2 55.0 8.4 13.2 19.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 4.9 12.8 13.0 115.6 68.0 54.4 4.6 7.8 12.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 11.2 14.5 13.7 115.1 68.0 55.2 5.1 8.8 13.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 10.9 13.2 11.5 109.3 66.5 54.0 5.2 8.6 13.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 11.7 14.8 11.5 109.3 66.6 54.1 4.7 8.7 14.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 5.7 14.1 11.5 106.1 65.4 54.2 5.4 9.2 14.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 13.0 18.5 15.6 119.5 69.4 57.6 5.5 10.2 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 4.0 10.5 10.4 90.9 61.2 49.9 3.5 7.0 12.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 9.9 11.9 10.9 104.5 65.2 53.6 3.9 7.4 12.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 8.1 14.3 14.5 139.5 75.2 61.3 3.0 6.0 10.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 9.5 13.5 15.5 118.7 69.2 57.0 4.0 7.4 12.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 13.1 13.7 13.9 128.5 72.2 59.4 3.5 6.7 11.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 12.0 17.3 18.9 125.0 71.4 57.6 5.5 9.6 14.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 5.1 14.0 12.7 116.0 68.1 54.9 4.9 8.5 13.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 40 60 100 11.3 13.0 14.6 134.1 73.8 60.9 2.8 5.7 10.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 9.3 12.6 13.7 119.6 69.4 57.3 4.1 7.3 11.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 11.2 15.6 14.3 116.0 68.2 56.3 4.5 8.6 14.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 10.5 14.3 13.9 116.8 68.5 56.6 4.2 8.0 13.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 10.6 12.4 11.2 102.5 64.5 53.3 4.5 8.1 12.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 9.2 13.9 14.3 124.1 70.9 59.0 3.3 6.7 11.7 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 10.4 11.1 10.3 93.1 61.6 50.1 4.3 7.8 12.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 15.3 21.9 17.3 121.8 70.3 57.8 6.9 12.2 19.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 34 66 100 12.8 13.7 13.9 131.2 73.0 60.0 3.6 6.7 11.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------