***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.12.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.01.2013.-13.01.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9999.0 3.5 8.9 93.5 60.8 47.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 1.8 4.7 8.0 88.3 59.1 45.2 1.6 3.4 5.9 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 2.3 5.6 8.9 94.4 61.0 46.7 2.1 3.9 6.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 2.2 4.8 8.7 86.5 58.9 46.7 2.0 3.7 6.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 6.4 6.7 9.2 90.3 60.2 48.3 2.8 4.9 7.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 6.0 6.0 8.1 88.0 58.9 47.9 2.1 4.3 7.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 1.8 4.6 8.1 89.5 59.1 44.7 1.6 3.3 5.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 6.8 7.3 9.4 92.9 60.5 50.0 2.8 5.2 8.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 4.7 5.1 9.7 93.0 60.8 48.7 1.8 3.6 5.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 5.9 6.4 9.9 93.6 60.7 49.7 2.1 4.3 7.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 5.3 5.3 8.3 89.5 59.6 48.4 1.7 3.7 6.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 5.8 6.2 8.0 91.0 60.1 49.4 2.2 4.3 7.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 5.6 5.7 8.0 89.1 59.1 48.9 1.9 4.0 7.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 3.1 8.2 10.9 102.0 63.3 50.2 2.9 5.4 8.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 2.2 4.9 7.7 81.3 57.1 43.7 2.1 3.9 6.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 5.4 5.4 7.8 88.3 59.1 48.1 2.0 3.9 6.8 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 1.9 4.9 8.0 89.3 59.5 45.3 1.7 3.5 6.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 5.7 6.1 11.3 95.8 61.3 50.3 2.4 4.4 7.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 2.2 5.3 8.2 90.1 59.7 46.0 2.2 4.0 6.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 7.2 7.7 13.0 96.3 61.8 50.7 2.3 4.9 9.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 5.5 5.8 9.4 93.5 60.7 47.2 2.0 4.0 6.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 2.4 5.5 8.4 88.7 59.3 46.7 2.3 4.1 6.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 2.0 5.1 9.0 96.2 61.8 48.0 1.8 3.5 5.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 6.1 6.6 10.4 97.5 61.8 49.0 2.8 4.8 7.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 5.2 5.4 9.8 91.1 60.2 47.6 2.0 3.8 6.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 5.0 5.1 8.0 90.1 59.8 48.9 1.9 3.7 6.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 4.6 4.9 9.5 92.8 60.5 47.4 1.7 3.4 5.8 29 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 1.9 4.4 7.9 84.6 58.1 45.6 1.8 3.4 5.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 8.3 9.0 12.2 96.4 61.5 50.5 3.2 6.3 10.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 1.8 4.5 8.2 89.4 59.4 45.3 1.6 3.3 5.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------