***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.12.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.12.2018.-06.01.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 66 34 0 100 0.3 2.0 2.4 -1.2 38.3 42.4 1.3 3.4 5.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 70 30 0 100 0.2 2.0 2.4 -1.2 38.8 42.7 1.3 3.2 5.1 30 Becej 27400G00 68 32 0 100 1.2 3.2 2.7 -1.3 38.3 42.5 2.5 4.8 6.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 64 36 0 100 -3.2 -1.4 -0.3 -1.3 37.7 41.2 -2.1 0.3 2.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 63 37 0 100 1.4 3.2 1.1 -1.1 39.6 42.9 2.3 4.4 6.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 1.8 3.5 1.2 -0.6 44.1 46.2 2.2 4.2 6.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 65 35 0 100 0.1 1.8 2.5 -1.1 40.0 43.5 1.0 3.0 4.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 -3.4 -2.1 1.2 -0.9 41.4 44.5 -2.9 -1.3 0.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 2.1 3.9 2.0 -1.1 39.8 43.4 3.0 5.2 7.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 60 40 0 100 1.7 3.3 1.6 -1.0 40.7 44.1 2.4 4.3 6.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 1.7 3.4 1.3 -1.0 40.6 43.8 2.4 4.5 6.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 2.1 3.9 1.4 -0.9 41.2 44.3 2.8 5.1 7.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 1.9 3.6 1.2 -0.8 42.6 45.3 2.4 4.5 6.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 65 35 0 100 1.7 3.7 2.5 -1.3 39.0 43.0 2.8 5.2 7.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 65 35 0 100 0.7 2.3 0.4 -1.2 37.7 41.2 1.7 3.9 5.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 2.3 4.0 1.1 -0.9 41.6 44.3 2.9 5.1 7.1 30 Nis 06700G01 66 34 0 100 0.1 1.8 2.7 -1.0 40.6 43.9 1.0 2.8 4.5 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 0.4 1.7 1.7 -1.1 40.5 44.2 0.9 2.6 4.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 71 29 0 100 0.2 2.2 2.5 -1.3 37.9 42.2 1.5 3.7 5.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 -1.1 0.6 0.5 -0.8 42.6 45.8 -0.7 1.5 3.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 66 34 0 100 1.5 3.5 2.4 -1.1 39.6 43.2 2.6 4.8 6.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 67 33 0 100 0.5 2.3 2.7 -1.1 39.0 42.9 1.5 3.5 5.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 70 30 0 100 0.3 2.1 2.7 -1.4 37.3 41.8 1.5 3.6 5.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 62 38 0 100 2.4 4.2 2.3 -1.2 39.3 43.3 3.3 5.6 7.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 63 37 0 100 0.7 2.1 1.0 -1.2 38.6 42.2 1.5 3.3 5.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 2.1 3.5 1.2 -0.6 43.5 46.2 2.4 4.1 5.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 62 38 0 100 1.6 3.3 2.0 -1.2 38.9 42.7 2.5 4.7 6.7 29 Vrsac 39200G15 63 37 0 100 1.0 2.9 0.2 -1.1 39.0 42.2 2.0 4.5 6.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 -0.6 1.0 1.3 -1.0 40.7 44.4 0.0 2.1 4.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 69 31 0 100 0.0 1.8 2.2 -1.3 38.1 42.2 1.1 3.1 5.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------