***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.12.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.01.2019.-13.01.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 1.9 4.0 2.3 -0.5 45.3 47.1 2.4 4.7 6.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 4.6 2.7 2.1 -0.7 44.0 46.3 1.1 3.6 5.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 6.1 4.2 2.6 -0.6 45.3 47.2 2.3 4.9 7.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 1.9 0.2 -0.4 -0.8 42.9 45.0 -1.0 1.1 3.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 5.4 3.8 0.9 -0.6 45.1 46.8 2.1 4.5 6.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 4.8 4.1 1.3 0.1 50.8 50.1 1.8 4.0 6.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 4.2 2.4 2.3 -0.6 44.7 46.7 0.7 3.1 5.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 0.9 0.1 1.2 -0.2 48.2 48.6 -1.3 0.3 1.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 2.4 4.8 1.8 -0.5 46.0 47.4 2.8 5.4 7.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 5.3 4.0 1.6 -0.3 47.5 48.2 2.0 4.3 6.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 5.6 4.2 1.2 -0.4 46.8 47.7 2.3 4.7 6.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 6.0 4.8 1.4 -0.2 48.2 48.6 2.5 5.0 7.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 5.4 4.5 1.4 0.0 50.1 49.8 2.0 4.4 6.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 6.6 5.0 2.5 -0.4 47.0 48.1 2.7 5.4 8.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 5.0 3.1 0.2 -0.9 42.4 44.1 1.8 4.1 6.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 6.1 4.8 1.1 -0.2 48.2 48.6 2.6 5.1 7.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 4.0 2.3 2.3 -0.7 44.2 46.6 0.7 3.0 5.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 3.3 2.4 1.8 -0.2 48.1 48.6 0.8 2.6 4.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 5.1 3.1 2.3 -0.7 44.2 46.5 1.4 4.0 6.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 2.3 1.5 0.6 0.0 50.0 50.0 -0.5 1.5 3.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 6.0 4.4 2.2 -0.5 45.6 47.2 2.5 5.0 7.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 4.8 2.8 2.3 -0.7 43.8 46.4 1.2 3.7 6.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 4.7 3.0 2.7 -0.6 45.4 47.2 1.2 3.7 6.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 7.1 5.6 2.3 -0.4 46.9 47.9 3.4 6.0 8.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 4.8 3.2 0.9 -0.6 44.7 46.4 1.7 3.9 6.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 5.0 4.2 1.3 0.0 50.5 50.3 2.2 4.2 6.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 1.7 4.0 2.0 -0.5 45.8 47.4 2.1 4.6 6.9 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 6.2 4.3 0.0 -0.8 43.6 45.5 2.7 5.2 7.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 3.7 2.7 1.5 -0.1 48.8 49.1 0.7 2.9 4.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 4.5 2.7 2.1 -0.7 44.2 46.4 1.0 3.5 5.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------