***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.12.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.12.2018.-13.01.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 64 36 0 100 2.1 2.5 2.2 -1.5 31.4 35.3 2.7 4.0 5.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 63 37 0 100 1.8 2.0 2.0 -1.7 29.5 33.9 2.3 3.6 4.8 30 Becej 27400G00 65 35 0 100 3.1 3.6 2.5 -1.6 31.1 35.1 3.8 5.2 6.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 63 37 0 100 -1.1 -0.6 -0.2 -1.3 33.3 36.2 -0.6 0.6 1.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 63 37 0 100 2.8 3.6 1.4 -1.0 36.9 39.2 3.3 4.7 5.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 4.7 4.0 1.6 -0.2 46.8 46.7 3.0 4.2 5.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 64 36 0 100 1.4 1.8 2.1 -1.5 31.5 35.3 1.9 3.3 4.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 -1.9 -1.1 1.6 -0.6 42.0 43.0 -1.6 -0.7 0.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 65 35 0 100 3.4 4.2 2.1 -1.1 35.2 37.9 4.0 5.5 6.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 60 40 0 100 2.8 3.8 1.8 -0.9 38.7 40.5 3.3 4.6 5.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 2.9 3.9 1.7 -0.9 38.4 40.4 3.5 4.9 6.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 3.3 4.5 1.8 -0.6 41.9 43.1 3.8 5.1 6.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 3.1 4.2 1.9 -0.5 43.2 44.0 3.3 4.7 6.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 72 28 0 100 3.3 4.2 2.5 -1.4 33.1 36.1 4.2 5.6 6.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 62 38 0 100 1.8 2.1 0.6 -1.6 30.6 33.9 2.3 3.7 5.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 3.6 4.6 1.5 -0.7 41.1 42.5 3.9 5.3 6.7 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 1.3 1.8 2.3 -1.3 32.9 36.5 1.8 3.1 4.4 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 1.4 2.2 1.9 -0.8 40.0 41.5 1.7 2.8 3.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 65 35 0 100 2.2 2.4 2.0 -1.8 28.2 32.9 2.8 4.2 5.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 2.1 1.3 1.1 -0.3 45.9 46.1 0.4 1.6 2.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 66 34 0 100 3.0 3.8 2.5 -1.2 34.5 37.4 3.7 5.1 6.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 64 36 0 100 1.9 2.3 2.3 -1.5 30.5 34.9 2.5 3.8 5.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 66 34 0 100 2.0 2.2 2.2 -1.9 27.8 32.4 2.6 4.0 5.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 65 35 0 100 3.6 4.5 2.5 -1.2 35.0 37.8 4.3 5.8 7.2 28 Valjevo 28500G11 63 37 0 100 2.1 2.7 1.4 -1.2 34.6 37.3 2.6 3.8 4.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 4.7 4.0 1.7 -0.2 47.1 47.2 3.0 4.2 5.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 64 36 0 100 2.8 3.5 2.0 -1.2 33.9 37.1 3.4 4.8 6.2 29 Vrsac 39200G15 62 38 0 100 2.8 3.4 0.4 -1.3 33.9 36.8 3.3 4.7 6.0 29 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 0.7 1.6 1.6 -0.6 41.3 42.5 1.0 2.2 3.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 66 34 0 100 1.6 1.9 1.9 -1.7 29.1 33.6 2.3 3.6 4.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------