***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.12.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.12.2018.-23.12.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 4.0 8.8 9.1 89.3 59.4 48.9 4.0 6.8 10.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 7.7 7.9 8.0 89.3 60.0 49.2 3.8 6.2 9.1 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 5.4 11.2 9.4 91.0 60.2 49.5 5.1 8.6 12.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 12.0 13.6 12.1 96.4 63.1 52.8 6.3 10.0 14.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 13.0 13.6 11.5 91.2 59.9 50.9 6.6 10.7 15.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 11.7 12.3 10.7 90.5 60.2 51.9 6.3 9.8 14.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 4.3 8.7 7.9 88.8 59.5 48.1 4.3 6.9 10.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 16.0 16.0 12.5 87.5 58.5 49.8 8.4 13.2 19.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 8.8 9.6 11.5 94.5 61.3 51.1 4.6 7.3 10.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 11.0 11.0 12.1 86.9 58.0 49.1 5.5 9.0 13.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 10.6 11.5 12.5 94.9 61.7 52.6 5.3 8.6 12.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 10.1 10.6 12.3 92.3 60.5 51.3 5.2 8.2 12.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 7.6 13.9 12.9 91.5 60.1 52.2 7.4 11.2 15.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 6.5 11.9 10.6 80.4 56.3 46.8 6.5 10.3 15.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 10.1 14.9 13.6 120.9 71.4 58.3 4.0 7.6 12.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 11.7 12.3 11.9 90.9 60.4 52.0 6.4 9.8 13.9 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 4.3 9.9 7.9 95.6 61.8 50.0 4.1 7.0 11.1 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 4.7 8.3 11.2 79.6 54.6 46.1 4.5 7.4 11.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 7.4 7.8 8.4 90.0 60.4 50.0 3.3 5.8 9.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 12.6 12.0 13.6 81.3 55.6 48.2 6.8 10.6 15.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 5.1 11.0 10.9 95.3 61.6 50.7 4.9 8.2 12.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 7.9 8.5 8.2 94.1 61.9 50.7 3.7 6.2 9.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 7.2 7.5 9.1 90.9 60.6 49.7 3.3 5.6 8.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 11.0 10.3 10.4 83.5 57.0 47.3 4.5 8.2 13.5 28 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 4.6 10.4 10.6 87.8 58.5 48.6 4.3 8.0 13.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 5.9 12.1 11.7 95.4 61.6 52.0 5.8 9.2 13.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 4.0 9.1 9.4 86.3 57.9 47.8 3.7 7.0 11.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 9.6 11.8 12.5 104.8 65.9 54.8 4.7 7.8 11.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 17.4 16.1 11.6 78.9 54.6 46.7 9.2 14.4 20.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 4.0 7.9 8.1 87.3 59.2 48.7 3.9 6.3 9.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------